The jump in August monthly consumer price index (CPI) means a further rate cut from the RBA when it meets on Monday and Tuesday this week is something of a “bridge too far”. And at this stage, the same might be said for the following meeting, set to conclude on Melbourne Cup Day.
There appears to be a hint of “last mile” complications in getting inflation back to the middle of the target 2-3 per cent range. The August monthly CPI indicator points to meaningful upside risks to the RBA quarterly trimmed-mean inflation projection. The RBA projection for the September quarter is close to 2.6 per cent. In the wake of the August monthly report, outcomes for the September quarter CPI are likely to be closer to 2.8-2.9 per cent.
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