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Archer Aviation (ACHR) has moved closer to launching urban air taxi services after becoming the first eVTOL company to complete Phase 3 of the FAA type certification process, a key regulatory milestone for investors to track.
See our latest analysis for Archer Aviation.
Despite progress on FAA certification and partnerships, Archer’s share price return is down 25.6% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 54.5%. However, the 3 year total shareholder return remains positive, suggesting sentiment has cooled recently after earlier enthusiasm.
If Archer’s progress has you interested in the wider air taxi and automation theme, it is worth checking stocks in related fields using the 30 robotics and automation stocks
With the stock down sharply over the past year and trading at a steep discount to analyst targets and some estimates of intrinsic value, the key question is whether Archer is now mispriced or if the market is already factoring in its future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued
Archer closed at $6.05 and the most followed narrative on Simply Wall St currently treats that price as roughly in line with its own fair value view, setting up a debate about how its contracts and future growth assumptions stack up against recent share price weakness.
ACHR, or known as Archer Aviation. This company lately is being overlooked but at the same time over crowded by ETFs. ACHR is currently year to date down 1.58%. This company has received a little attention from the media in the past several months, bringing an increase of 199%. The reason I expect this company to continue to move and push forward is several of its latest major contracts with the DOD, or Department of Defense. ACHR has locked in a position with the US government and they are fixed-term contracts. This means periodically they will be receiving lump sums of money from our government for their services. The company has mixed signals such as bullish long-term hammers and short-term bearish signals. Do not let these fool you. It may not be today or tomorrow, but when they release their quarterly reports, all of the momentum will be back.
According to TeamDaily, the story leans heavily on long term contracts and a sharp revenue ramp paired with an earnings profile that stays in the red for several years. Want to see how those growth expectations, profit margins and future valuation multiples fit together into a single fair value number? The full narrative spells out the assumptions that sit behind this thesis without holding back on the projections.
Result: Fair Value of $0 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are clear risks here, including Archer’s recent share price declines and its current position of minimal revenue alongside a sizeable net loss.
Find out about the key risks to this Archer Aviation narrative.
Another View: Cash Flows Paint A Different Picture
While the community narrative pins Archer’s fair value at roughly its current $6.05 share price, the SWS DCF model points to a very different outcome, with a future cash flow value of $18.79. That gap suggests either a large margin of safety or very demanding cash flow assumptions. Which side of that line do you think the stock sits on?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
ACHR Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Archer Aviation for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
After reviewing both the upside potential and the clear risks raised in this article, it may be useful to move promptly and test the numbers yourself with the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Archer has caught your eye, do not stop there, the wider market holds plenty of other stocks that could fit your goals just as well.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ACHR.
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