SoftBank Group Corp. has reported full-year results to 31 March 2026, with sales rising to ¥7,798,650 million and net income reaching ¥5,002,271 million, both up from the prior year.
Investor attention has quickly shifted to speculation about an OpenAI IPO at a very large valuation, which could significantly influence the perceived value of SoftBank’s roughly 11% stake alongside its latest earnings performance.
We’ll now examine how SoftBank’s substantial OpenAI stake, highlighted by the recent IPO speculation, could reshape its broader investment narrative.
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SoftBank Group Investment Narrative Recap
To own SoftBank today, you really have to believe in its role as an AI-heavy investment platform, with Arm, OpenAI and the Vision Funds at the core. The OpenAI IPO speculation and SoftBank’s roughly 11% stake look like the key short term catalyst, but they also amplify the biggest risk right now: sharp swings in the value of high growth tech holdings driving very volatile earnings and sentiment.
The most relevant recent announcement here is SoftBank’s full year results to 31 March 2026, showing sales of ¥7,798,650 million and net income of ¥5,002,271 million. These headline figures frame how sensitive reported profits already are to investment gains and losses, which matters when the market is quickly trying to connect OpenAI valuation headlines to SoftBank’s net asset value and potential future earnings volatility.
But against the excitement around OpenAI, investors should also be aware of how much of SoftBank’s balance sheet is tied to leveraged, tech focused bets…
Read the full narrative on SoftBank Group (it’s free!)
SoftBank Group’s narrative projects ¥8,650.2 billion revenue and ¥620.6 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.5% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of ¥1,110.8 billion from ¥1,731.4 billion today.
Uncover how SoftBank Group’s forecasts yield a ¥5360 fair value, a 21% downside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives 
TSE:9984 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Before this OpenAI news, the most bullish analysts were already assuming revenue of about ¥10,020,000 million and earnings near ¥919,300 million by 2029, which makes their view far more optimistic than consensus and raises fair questions about how rising rates and funding conditions could hit SoftBank’s tech heavy portfolio.
Explore 6 other fair value estimates on SoftBank Group – why the stock might be worth as much as ¥7000!
Reach Your Own Conclusion
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
No Opportunity In SoftBank Group?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 9984.T.
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