It’s been a pretty great week for Mainfreight Limited (NZSE:MFT) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to NZ$64.75 in the week since its latest full-year results. Mainfreight reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of NZ$5.4b and statutory earnings per share of NZ$2.49, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
NZSE:MFT Earnings and Revenue Growth May 30th 2026
Following the latest results, Mainfreight’s six analysts are now forecasting revenues of NZ$5.82b in 2027. This would be a solid 8.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 11% to NZ$2.76. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of NZ$5.95b and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$2.74 in 2027. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.
View our latest analysis for Mainfreight
The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of NZ$73.44, showing that the analysts don’t expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Mainfreight’s market value. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mainfreight at NZ$79.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NZ$66.40. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business’ future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Mainfreight’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.1% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.3% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Mainfreight to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have estimates – from multiple Mainfreight analysts – going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Mainfreight’s Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.