In late May and early June 2026, Nvidia’s launch of its RTX Spark AI PC superchip targeting Windows on Arm prompted concern about increased competition for Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X processors, just as Qualcomm introduced its Dragonfly AI data-center brand and highlighted broader AI ambitions.
The contrast between Nvidia’s detailed PC roadmap and Qualcomm’s still-to-be-explained Dragonfly offering has sharpened investor focus on whether Qualcomm can defend and extend its role in AI PCs and data-center silicon.
We’ll now examine how Nvidia’s direct challenge to Snapdragon X in AI PCs could influence Qualcomm’s diversification-led investment narrative.
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QUALCOMM Investment Narrative Recap
To own Qualcomm here, you need to believe its push beyond smartphones into AI PCs, automotive, and data centers can offset handset and licensing headwinds. Nvidia’s RTX Spark launch directly challenges Snapdragon X in Windows on Arm, which matters because AI PCs are a key near term test of Qualcomm’s diversification story. The biggest immediate risk, in my view, is that rising competition in PCs and data centers slows Qualcomm’s ability to convert its AI roadmap into meaningful, high margin revenue.
The most relevant recent announcement against this backdrop is Qualcomm’s new Dragonfly AI data center brand, introduced just as Nvidia detailed its own PC and data center trajectory. Dragonfly is meant to anchor Qualcomm’s move into AI infrastructure alongside its custom ASIC wins, but investors now have to weigh that against Nvidia’s momentum and a market already concerned about Qualcomm’s early stage diversification. How convincingly Qualcomm fills in the Dragonfly details on June 24 will feed directly into this catalyst.
Yet beneath the AI excitement, investors should also be aware of the risk that intensified OEM in house silicon efforts could quietly chip away at Qualcomm’s core earnings power…
Read the full narrative on QUALCOMM (it’s free!)
QUALCOMM’s narrative projects $48.8 billion revenue and $11.0 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 3.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.1 billion earnings increase from $9.9 billion today.
Uncover how QUALCOMM’s forecasts yield a $168.50 fair value, a 30% downside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives 
QCOM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Some of the lowest ranked analysts tell a very different story, assuming almost flat revenue near US$42.5 billion and earnings of about US$10.2 billion by 2028, which sits uneasily beside Nvidia’s RTX Spark challenge and questions around Qualcomm’s ability to offset rising client vertical integration and shrinking handset exposure.
Explore 19 other fair value estimates on QUALCOMM – why the stock might be worth 41% less than the current price!
Reach Your Own Conclusion
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include QCOM.
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