Lead negotiators from Iran and the United States are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on Friday to sign an agreement that would formally end the war and launch 60 days of technical talks.
The memorandum is “very general” and doesn’t even fill two pages, US Vice President JD Vance told CNN on Monday. It addresses the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran and issues of Iran’s frozen assets and a potential reconstruction fund.
But much remains unknown about the deal: the sequencing, verification and enforcement mechanisms, and — critically — whether both sides can keep the spoilers in Iran, Israel and the US at bay long enough to let this small diplomatic opening kickstart serious negotiations.
But here’s the bigger question: Is this a war deferred, or is this the beginning of something genuinely different?
In the statements from Vance and some Iranian officials, there appears to be an attempt to frame the emerging deal as the start of a series of steps and performance-based concessions. Every verified step by one side begets additional steps by the other. That logic, if applied consistently, could potentially take the conversation well beyond Iran’s nuclear program.
That would be a significant shift. The most recent American approach to Iran has primarily focused on containing its nuclear program, not seriously addressing other areas of disagreement. A genuinely comprehensive framework, one that addresses the regional security architecture, sustained sanctions relief tied to verified behavior, and some form of mutual deterrence guarantee, begins to look like a “grand bargain.” That has never been seriously considered by Washington.
After the US invaded Iraq in 2003, Iran quietly reached out to the US with a proposal for comprehensive talks on nearly all of their disputes, including its nuclear program, support for militants, recognition of Israel and economic cooperation. According to The Washington Post, the overture was brushed aside by Bush administration officials who believed the Iranian regime was weak and potentially heading toward collapse.