Nearly three years after October 7, Israel has won battles, weakened enemies, and shown it can strike across the region. But Keren Setton’s report asks the harder question: What has all that force actually produced?
Israel now stands at a strategic crossroads. It remains militarily present in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria; far from long-sought normalization with Saudi Arabia; increasingly isolated internationally; and newly constrained by a preliminary US-Iran memorandum of understanding. The battlefield map is wider than ever, stretching from Gaza and southern Lebanon to Syria, Iran, Yemen, and even Qatar. Yet analysts quoted by Setton say military reach has not translated into a stable regional order.
Chuck Freilich, a former Israeli national security adviser, offers the bleakest diagnosis, saying there is “a great gap between the military picture and the strategic picture.” Israel, he argues, has failed to destroy Hamas, prevent Hezbollah’s recovery, or stop Iran from claiming victory after surviving direct American and Israeli strikes. Prof. Jonathan Rynhold offers a more mixed view: Israel’s enemies are weaker, but its diplomatic and political standing, especially in the United States, has worsened.
The Iran front may be the most consequential. Israeli and American strikes damaged Iranian military infrastructure and reportedly set back parts of Tehran’s nuclear program, but the regime survived. The new US-Iran framework could limit Israel’s freedom of action, especially if future sanctions relief helps Iran rebuild.
In Gaza, all hostages, living and dead, have been returned, but Hamas still controls part of the territory and refuses to disarm. Israel controls more than half the strip, while Netanyahu’s coalition pushes for continued military pressure and some members openly favor resettlement.
Lebanon is no cleaner. Hezbollah is badly weakened, but it remains active, and Iran now uses the group as a deterrent against further Israeli action.
Setton’s full article moves past slogans about victory and defeat. It lays out the uncomfortable middle ground Israel now occupies: powerful, feared, bloodied, diplomatically squeezed, and still searching for a strategy that can turn battlefield success into lasting security.