MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Services PMI data for eurozone, Germany, France, U.K., Italy; EU PPI; France industrial production; no major corporate trading updates expected

Opening Call:

European stock futures rose early Friday. Asian stock indexes advanced; the dollar was little changed; Treasury yields rose slightly; while oil futures rose and gold fell slightly.

Equities:

Stock futures point to a slightly higher open in Europe on Friday amid continued AI optimism. Asian stock benchmarks tracked U.S. indexes higher, with sentiment lifted by OpenAI’s recent funding deal and stunning valuation.

“The main, dominant story is AI and technology,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.

“Investors have shifted focus to earnings season in two weeks,” Lerner added. Semiconductors look particularly insulated from Washington’s disruptions, keeping the sector tied more to AI headlines.

Some strategists cautioned that the tech rally may be getting ahead of fundamentals. “That’s mostly momentum,” said Robert Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “We’ll need earnings to confirm demand.”

Forex:

Markets remain in a state of flux, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril said. Democrats are holding out for an extension of pandemic-era healthcare subsidies, while President Trump has threatened to fire “thousands” of federal workers to force a resolution, he said.

Given that neither side is showing signs of compromise, the shutdown seems poised to drag on, amplifying uncertainty across markets, Catril added.

Bonds:

The U.S. government shutdown has deprived the market of the usual data points, but alternative indicators reinforce the narrative that labor is wobbling, weighing down on Treasury yields.

Nonfarm payrolls were forecast in a WSJ survey to print 51,000, up from August’s 22,000, but the release is suspended. Later Friday, the ISM services PMI is expected to repeat August’s 52 reading.

Energy:

Oil futures rose early Friday after falling overnight for the fourth straight session.

However, oil’s gains may be curbed by concerns that OPEC+ could announce a production increase at its meeting on Sunday. There’s speculation that the group may unveil a significantly larger production increase for November than for October, Commerzbank Research’s Barbara Lambrecht said.

Metals:

Gold edged lower in Asia, though prices are supported by expectations of easier monetary policy, central bank demand and a weak U.S. dollar, said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

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A mud-flow accident at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, which halted production, has supported copper prices, Macquarie said. Still, the Macquarie strategists suggest that the global market isn’t physically tight, but in a surplus, fueled by rising refined output in China and higher production in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

“Demand is also weakening in China as the tariff front-running in 1H and declining exports start to impact.”

TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES

Trump Threatens Far-Reaching Cuts at Federal Agencies

WASHINGTON-President Trump intensified pressure on Democrats as the government shutdown entered its second day, saying he would begin a process to make far-reaching cuts at federal agencies.

The president said he planned to meet Thursday with Russell Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, to discuss which agencies would be targeted, and whether the cuts should be temporary or permanent. Trump signaled that he would focus on agencies and programs that Democrats value.

Sedate Iron-Ore Market Might Be About to Stumble

The price of iron ore, a key ingredient for steelmaking, has been strangely stable this year. There are plenty of reasons to think that may not last.

Since the start of 2025, prices of iron ore, one of the world’s most-traded commodities, has been virtually glued to the $100 mark, where it opened the year. From this year’s peak in February to its June trough, the price swung by less than 16%. That compares with a trough-to-peak rise of roughly 30% in copper and 50% in gold.

Delays to Trump’s U.A.E. Chips Deal Frustrate Nvidia’s Jensen Huang

WASHINGTON-A multibillion-dollar deal to send Nvidia’s artificial-intelligence chips to the United Arab Emirates is stuck in neutral nearly five months after it was signed, frustrating Chief Executive Jensen Huang and some senior administration officials.

The delays are a setback to Huang and White House AI Czar David Sacks, who hoped to see the deal advance quickly to highlight a new U.S. tech strategy focused on exports, according to people familiar with the matter. They see agreements like the U.A.E. deal as key to the U.S. staying ahead of China in the AI race.

Trump’s Drone Deal With Ukraine to Give U.S. Access to Battlefield Tech

A Ukrainian team is in Washington this week to craft a landmark agreement with the Trump administration that would involve Kyiv sharing its battle-tested drone technology with the U.S. in exchange for royalties or other forms of compensation, according to officials from both countries.

The prospective deal, which has the backing of President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, would mark a milestone in the security relationship between Washington and Kyiv.

Tesla Sets New Sales Record as EV Subsidy Ends

Tesla set a new sales record in the third quarter in a surprise reversal of the steep declines that have plagued the electric-vehicle maker this year.

Global EV deliveries grew 7.4% in the period that ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier thanks in large part to U.S. customers who rushed to take advantage of the $7,500 federal EV credit, which expired at the end of the quarter.

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Expected Major Events for Friday

00:01/IRL: Sep Ireland Services PMI

06:45/FRA: Aug Industrial production index

07:00/TUR: Sep PPI

07:00/TUR: Sep CPI

07:15/SPN: Sep Spain Services PMI

07:30/EU: Sep EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic activity

07:45/ITA: Sep Italy Services PMI

07:50/FRA: Sep France Services PMI

07:55/GER: Sep Germany Services PMI

08:00/EU: Sep Eurozone Services PMI

08:00/ITA: Aug Retail Sales

08:30/UK: Sep UK Official Reserves

08:30/UK: Sep S&P Global UK Services PMI

09:00/EU: Aug PPI

09:00/ITA: 2Q General Government Quarterly Accounts

10:00/ITA: 2Q GDP revised

10:00/IRL: Sep Irish Live Register latest monthly figures

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 03, 2025 00:17 ET (04:17 GMT)

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