On September 8, Microsoft announced a multi-billion dollar, five-year agreement with Nebius Group to secure dedicated AI infrastructure, which includes access to over 100,000 Nvidia chips for its large language model and AI assistant development efforts.
This partnership signals Nebius Group’s rise as a critical supplier for large-scale cloud-based AI compute, directly addressing ongoing data center capacity shortages in the industry.
We’ll examine how the Microsoft partnership, and Nebius’s pivotal role supplying AI chips, reshapes the company’s long-term investment case.
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The core thesis behind Nebius Group is that surging enterprise demand for cloud-based AI compute will sustain the company’s rapid expansion and revenue growth potential. The multi-billion dollar Microsoft partnership strengthens Nebius’ position as a go-to provider of dedicated AI infrastructure, but the biggest near-term catalysts, like accelerated revenue growth from hyperscaler contracts, remain tightly linked to execution. The most immediate risk is potential dilution from heavy capital raising; the Microsoft deal does not eliminate this concern, though it could help ease funding pressures depending on contract terms.
One of the most relevant recent events is the completion of Nebius’s US$1 billion follow-on equity offering in September, a move that adds to its financial resources to meet rising infrastructure needs. This announcement ties directly to the short-term growth opportunities presented by the Microsoft agreement, but also heightens shareholder sensitivity to dilution and long-term returns on new capital invested.
However, investors should be aware that despite strong momentum, shareholder dilution risk remains elevated in the near term…
Read the full narrative on Nebius Group (it’s free!)
Nebius Group’s narrative projects $3.2 billion in revenue and $428.7 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 133.9% annual revenue growth and a $238.5 million earnings increase from current earnings of $190.2 million.
Uncover how Nebius Group’s forecasts yield a $153.00 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.
NBIS Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025
Thirty-eight members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Nebius Group’s fair value anywhere from US$7.35 to US$333.76 per share. While some see major upside, others remain cautious of ongoing dilution and capital needs, signaling divergent views on long-term performance drivers.
Explore 38 other fair value estimates on Nebius Group – why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NBIS.
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