Investing.com — The second half of 2026 is unlikely to produce the sweeping policy shifts that rattled markets last year, but investors should still prepare for a series of trade, legislative, regulatory and geopolitical developments that could influence sectors ranging from manufacturing and healthcare to financials and energy, according to a Wolfe Research note.
The brokerage said Congress is shifting into campaign mode ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, reducing the scope for major legislation. However, policymakers still face key deadlines, including funding the government before Oct. 1 to avoid a shutdown, while lawmakers could also consider a defense supplemental spending bill, crypto market structure legislation and China-related provisions in the annual defense authorization bill.
On trade, Wolfe expects the Trump administration to continue reshaping its tariff regime following the Supreme Court’s ruling against the use of IEEPA tariffs. It expects Section 301 tariffs to largely replace the previous framework while warning that several industries—including medical technology, robotics, drones, polysilicon and wind turbines—remain at risk of new Section 232 tariffs later this year.
The report also sees USMCA negotiations continuing into late 2026 or early 2027, with the eventual outcome likely to be an updated trilateral agreement accompanied by separate bilateral arrangements with Canada and Mexico rather than a withdrawal from the pact.
On the regulatory front, Wolfe highlighted pending reforms to bank capital rules, liquidity requirements, SEC reporting rules, energy regulations, healthcare reimbursement policies and Medicaid implementation, with several proposals expected to be finalized late this year or in early 2027.
Beyond domestic policy, the brokerage identified several geopolitical milestones that could affect markets, including the Aug. 17 deadline for U.S.-Iran negotiations, a potential Trump-Xi meeting in September, Israel’s October elections and Taiwan’s November local elections. It cautioned that, under the Trump administration, investors should also be prepared for unexpected policy actions beyond the known calendar.
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