Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Global impacts
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful drivers of year-to-year climate variability. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.
The effects of each El Niño event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.
WMO classifies ENSO events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. The term “super El Niño” is not part of WMO’s operational classification system and is therefore not used in official WMO products.
Seasonal outlook maps
The seasonal outlook maps for August-October, illustrate the probabilities of seasonal mean surface temperature(left) and precipitation (right) falling into above-, near-, or below-normal categories relative to local climatology. The colour coding identifies the category with the highest forecast probability. For example, red, blue, or grey regions indicate that the seasonal mean surface air temperature is most likely to be above-, below-, or near-normal, respectively. Deeper shades reflect a higher probability of the seasonal mean falling into that dominant category, while white areas denote equal chances (33.3% each) for all three categories. Crucially, an assigned colour indicates probability rather than certainty.
Temperature Outlook
The Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above average temperatures across most land areas. The strongest signals of this trend extend across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand. Over the oceans, the equatorial Pacific continues to reflect the footprint of the intensifying El Niño event.
Rainfall Outlook
The August–October 2026 rainfall outlook exhibits patterns of a classic, strong El Niño event. Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa; parts of Central Asia; Southern Europe; Western North America (south of 45°N); and Southeastern South America. In contrast, drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over The Indian subcontinent; Southern and eastern Australia; Southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean; Northwestern South America; and Northern Europe.
WMO Action
WMO is intensifying its mobilization of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimize the impacts of El Niño.
Regular briefings are being provided across the United Nations system and to humanitarian partners to support preparedness and risk management efforts. A WMO Coordination Mechanism Seasonal Climate Outlook briefing for UN agencies and humanitarian organizations on 24 June 2026 included regional outlooks such as the 2026 West African and Sahel rainy season forecast from the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre.
WMO is also developing a series of webinars and technical exchanges to strengthen regional coordination, communication and preparedness in response to the emerging El Niño event.
For more information on WMO El Niño Updates, read here.