gold
Gold enters the new week with renewed bullish momentum after rebounding from the critical $4,000 support zone, while a weaker U.S. dollar and softer American employment data have strengthened expectations for a less aggressive Federal Reserve.
Written by:
Skerdian Meta
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Sunday, August 9, 2026
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4 min read
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Last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026
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Quick overview
Gold has rebounded from the critical $4,000 support zone, reaching over $4,360, driven by weaker U.S. employment data and a declining dollar.The disappointing jobs report has shifted expectations for the Federal Reserve towards a less aggressive monetary policy, boosting gold’s appeal.Upcoming U.S. CPI data is crucial, as higher inflation could challenge gold’s rally, while softer inflation may reinforce bullish sentiment.Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold.
Live GOLD Chart
GOLD
Gold enters the new week with renewed bullish momentum after rebounding from the critical $4,000 support zone, while a weaker U.S. dollar and softer American employment data have strengthened expectations for a less aggressive Federal Reserve.
Gold Rebounds From Critical $4,000 Support
Gold is entering the week with significantly stronger momentum after staging a powerful recovery from the psychologically important $4,000 an ounce area.
The precious metal pushed above $4,360 on Friday, reaching its highest level in seven weeks after U.S. employment data unexpectedly showed a decline in nonfarm payrolls. The July report showed payrolls falling by 23,000, compared with expectations for an increase of around 80,000.
The disappointing jobs data immediately changed the interest-rate narrative. Expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate move shifted sharply, while the U.S. dollar weakened broadly.
That combination provided an important boost for gold, which gained nearly 10% during the week. The move also lifted gold-mining stocks, with the GDX ETF recording its second-best weekly performance ever.
The latest rally is therefore looking more significant than a simple short-term bounce. Gold has now moved decisively away from the $4,000 support region and is attempting to establish a new bullish trend.
Weaker U.S. Data Gives Gold Another Tailwind
The latest nonfarm payrolls report eased some concerns that the U.S. economy was overheating and that persistent inflation would force the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy for longer.
Instead, the data reinforced the increasingly familiar low-hiring, low-firing picture in the U.S. labor market.
That matters for gold because weaker economic momentum can reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. Lower rates and falling Treasury yields generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold.
The U.S. dollar also came under broad selling pressure following the employment report.
Just one week earlier, markets were increasingly concerned about the possibility of a more hawkish Fed. Now, expectations have shifted toward patience and potentially easier policy.
However, the next major inflation report could quickly change that narrative.
U.S. CPI Becomes the Next Major Gold Catalyst
The focus now turns to U.S. CPI data on Wednesday.
Markets are expecting headline CPI to rise 0.1% month-on-month in July, following a 0.4% decline previously. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month, compared with no change in the previous month.
The inflation report could determine whether the recent dollar decline has further room to run.
Higher-than-expected inflation would create a significant problem for the gold rally by encouraging the Fed to maintain a more restrictive stance. A softer inflation reading, however, could reinforce expectations for easier monetary policy and provide another boost to precious metals.
Core goods prices are expected to increase, partly reflecting higher prices across some consumer products, while several services categories could provide an offset.
This makes Wednesday’s report particularly important for gold traders following last week’s dramatic repricing of Fed expectations.
Iran and Strait of Hormuz Risks Keep Safe-Haven Demand Alive
Geopolitical developments also remain an important factor.
President Trump has indicated that he is relying on economic pressure against Iran rather than immediately resuming military strikes, while Tehran has reportedly introduced additional conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The uncertainty surrounding the strategic shipping route creates another layer of support for safe-haven assets.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have reportedly insisted that Hormuz remain closed until sanctions are lifted and compensation is addressed. At the same time, Houthi-linked threats around Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports introduce another potential disruption to regional energy flows.
However, there are also signs that negotiations could eventually produce de-escalation. Oman’s confirmation that discussions over management of the strait are approaching a final stage leaves open the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough.
For gold, that creates a complicated backdrop. A genuine peace agreement could reduce some safe-haven demand, while another escalation could accelerate the flight toward precious metals.
Technical Analysis—The 200 SMA Held a Support
The broader trend remains bearish following several months of declines, the latest rebound suggests downside momentum may be fading however, MAs continue to keep the trend bearish. Buyers successfully defended the $4,000 support zone once again despite breaching it, while recovering despite higher Treasury yields represents an encouraging technical development.
Technically, the correction early in H1 of 2026 was severe. Gold broke decisively below its 50-day simple moving average, ending a streak of consistent trend support. Attention quickly shifted to the 100-day moving average near $5,000 which was also broken and in late March we saw a decline below the early February low of $4,400, and XAU bottomed at $3,942.
Gold Chart Daily – Gold Rebounds Off the 200 SMA
However Gold has found support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) turned into support in the last 3 weeks after XAU slipped to $3,940s, but rebounded late in the week and managed to close above the $4,300 level. On the weekly chart, Gold broke below the 50 SMA (yellow) as well in June and still trades below it.
Gold Chart Weekly – The 50 SMA Turned Into Resistance
However, the ability to hold above $4,000 carries psychological importance. Reclaiming such a major round-number threshold often stabilizes sentiment, especially after a period of forced liquidation. While volatility remains elevated, the ability to defend longer-term trend support suggests that structural buyers remain active
China Adds Physical Gold Demand
China remains another important source of underlying support.
Chinese gold imports reportedly reached approximately 173 tonnes in June, the strongest monthly inflow since March 2024. First-half imports were estimated at roughly 820 tonnes.
Lower international gold prices and a stronger yuan helped improve purchasing conditions, while banks also made use of available import quotas.
However, the physical-demand picture is not uniformly bullish. While withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange have provided support, broader wholesale demand remains relatively subdued compared with historical levels.
China therefore offers a valuable foundation for the gold market, but it may not be enough by itself to sustain another explosive rally.
China Tightens Precious-Metal Trading
China’s efforts to curb speculative precious-metal trading could create another short-term complication.
Several major state-owned banks have reportedly restricted retail trading in certain precious-metal derivatives on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. These instruments allowed investors to speculate on gold prices without taking physical delivery.
Reduced access to these products could weaken speculative participation and create short-term liquidity pressure.
At the same time, some investors could redirect capital toward physical bullion, potentially providing a more stable source of demand.
Gold Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the $4,000 zone remains the critical support level after gold successfully defended it and launched its latest rebound.
The move above $4,360 is an important bullish signal, particularly after the metal posted its strongest weekly performance in months.
If buyers can maintain momentum above this area, attention will shift toward higher resistance levels and the possibility of another attempt at record territory.
However, the rally remains dependent on the weaker-dollar and dovish-Fed narrative. A hotter-than-expected CPI report could quickly push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, putting renewed pressure on gold.
For now, gold enters the week with momentum firmly on the side of the buyers, but Wednesday’s inflation data could determine whether the latest breakout develops into a sustained bullish move or another temporary surge.
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.