Second-half growth expected to slow
KResearch maintained its full-year GDP forecast at 2%, reflecting expectations that growth momentum would weaken in the second half compared with the first half’s 2.4% expansion.
The economy could improve in the third quarter with support from fiscal measures intended to sustain economic activity and domestic spending.
However, growth is expected to slow again in the fourth quarter as momentum in consumption, private investment and exports weakens.
Thailand’s economy will therefore continue to face constraints from both domestic conditions and external factors, particularly uncertainty surrounding international trade policies and their effects on exports.
US trade policy becomes key second-half risk
KResearch assessed that the principal risks facing Thailand during the remainder of 2026 were likely to shift from the effects of the Middle East conflict towards external economic pressure and uncertainty over US trade policy.
Among the main issues to watch is a US investigation into structural overcapacity.
Thailand must also monitor US scrutiny of transshipment, in which goods originating in another country are routed through Thailand before being exported to the United States, potentially to avoid trade restrictions or tariffs.
Any additional US measures in these areas could affect Thailand’s manufacturing and export sectors.
Details of the measures and the outcome of trade negotiations between Thailand and the United States will therefore be important for the country’s exports, investment flows and supply chains.
Impact may become clearer in 2027
Although the precise details of future US trade measures remain uncertain, KResearch expects their effects on the Thai economy to emerge more clearly in 2027.
The stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP figure does not mean Thailand has entered a robust or sustainable economic recovery, it said.
Several sources of growth are continuing to lose momentum, while risks arising from global trade policies are becoming increasingly significant.