THE TAKEAWAY
A team of scientists discovered a new way to identify where some of Earth’s biggest earthquakes are most likely to occur.
Researchers from the University of California, Riverside, identified areas where stress has been building.
Using GPS measurements that track subtle ground movements, the researchers developed an algorithm to identify the sections.
The researchers stress that their method is helpful, but cannot predict when an earthquake will happen.
A team of scientists discovered a new way to identify where some of Earth’s biggest earthquakes are most likely to occur, potentially giving communities another tool to prepare for major disasters.
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In a recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters, researchers from the University of California, Riverside, identified areas along major faults where stress has been building.
This aerial view shows collapsed buildings in Catia La Mar, La Guaira state, Venezuela, on June 27, 2026, following earthquakes that struck the region.
The findings could help scientists better understand where a future rupture is most likely to occur.
The team tested its approach in the Kamchatka subduction zone in eastern Russia, where a massive earthquake recently struck.
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Researchers focused on subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides beneath another. These areas are responsible for some of the largest earthquakes on Earth and can produce devastating tsunamis.
“Earthquakes capture headlines when they happen, but for years beforehand, the fault is quietly accumulating strain,” lead scientist and UCR geophysicist Gareth Funning said. “This strain can be measured.”
Using GPS measurements that track subtle ground movements, the researchers developed an algorithm to identify sections of faults that are locked and storing energy.
These locked areas, known as asperities, act like patches of friction along a fault. They can resist movement as stress builds until they eventually rupture during a major earthquake.
The researchers identified one of these locked regions beneath Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula before a major earthquake struck there.
While the method cannot determine when an earthquake will occur, the rupture happened in the same area where the model showed strain had accumulated.
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The findings also showed that earthquakes in the same region can behave very differently.
Kamchatka experienced massive earthquakes in both 1952 and 2025, but the more recent earthquake produced a much smaller tsunami.
People walk over the ruins of houses in the aftermath of an earthquake at Jajarkot district on November 4, 2023.
Researchers are now applying the same approach to other major subduction zones in Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and the Pacific Northwest.
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Each region presents its own challenges, including areas where tectonic energy is released gradually instead of through sudden, major earthquakes.
The team is also investigating whether similar techniques could help scientists better understand earthquake risks along California’s faults.
The earthquake in the southern Philippines killed at least 32 people, according to provincial authorities, after toppling buildings and sparking tsunami warnings across the region.
“In the Bay Area, the Hayward Fault has both creeping and locked sections, much like subduction zones,” Funning said. “We’re investigating whether we can identify the parts most likely to generate future earthquakes.”
The researchers stress that their method is helpful, but cannot predict when an earthquake will happen or how large a resulting tsunami will be.
A view shows a heavily damaged apartment building following an earthquake in Catia La Mar, La Guaira state, about 30 km northwest of Caracas, on June 25, 2026.
However, this could give scientists and communities a better understanding of where the greatest earthquake hazards may exist, potentially improving long-term planning and preparedness.
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“Your peace of mind shouldn’t come from believing we can forecast the exact earthquake,” Funning said. “Especially where we live in Southern California, it’s not a matter of if, but when. There is no substitute for preparation.”
Original article source: Scientists discover a new way to identify where major earthquakes could strike