Investing.com — Chinese automakers are set to capture 37% of the global car market by 2030, up from 22% in the first half of 2026, as stronger consumer acceptance supports their expansion beyond China, UBS analysts said.
The forecast was raised from 35%, with the projected share in Europe also increased to 20% from 18%. Chinese brands currently hold about 8% of the European market, with recent gains running faster than previously expected.
A UBS Evidence Lab survey of 12,000 consumers found 36% of European respondents would consider buying an electric vehicle from a Chinese brand. Interest in Chinese brands in Europe has moved above that for Japanese and Korean brands combined.
Value for money remains the biggest attraction, cited by 66% of prospective Chinese EV buyers globally. Advanced technology, including digital features and autonomous-driving capabilities, ranked second at 61%.
Chinese automakers have gained between 9 and 12 percentage points of market share across Europe, Latin America, parts of Asia and the Middle East and Africa since 2019. Weak domestic demand in China has also increased pressure on manufacturers to expand exports.
Europe remains a key battleground. Potential tariffs on plug-in hybrids and new local-content requirements could slow Chinese brands, alongside weaker residual values, limited aftersales networks and difficulties entering the corporate fleet market.
Under the base case, a small group including BYD, Geely, Chery, SAIC, Leapmotor and Xiaomi could emerge as the leading Chinese players overseas. An upside scenario puts their global share as high as 45% and European share at 30% by 2030. A downside scenario sees the figures limited to 33% globally and 15% in Europe.
European and Asian mass-market automakers face the greatest competitive pressure. U.S. manufacturers remain better insulated, with Chinese automakers effectively locked out of the U.S. market by trade barriers. Luxury manufacturers are also expected to prove more resilient than mass-market rivals.
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