Heightened concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East sent Brent crude above $110/barrel on Friday morning trade in Asia before easing, with US-Iran tensions continuing to escalate.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait disruption fears support oil prices
Fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure heighten concerns over export security
Renewed Chinese buying of non-Middle East crude supports global prices
Brent crude hit an intra-day high of $110.19/barrel, while US WTI touched a session high of $104.46/barrel in early Friday trade in Asia.
On 10 September, Brent crude spiked by 5.9% to settle at an almost four-month high, while US WTI surged by 6.7%, putting the US benchmark on course for its largest weekly gain since July.
Gains were driven by mounting threats to the Middle East’s two key oil transit routes – the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Iran-aligned Houthi militant group seized Yemen’s port of Mocha on 10 September, tightening its grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – which borders Yemen in the Middle East, and Djibouti and Eritrea in Africa- while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained amid a recent spate of attacks on vessels, according to media reports.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a key global energy chokepoint through which crude oil and refined products transit between the Red Sea, Suez Canal and major markets in Europe and Asia.
The waterway has taken on added importance since disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz prompted Saudi Arabia to increasingly divert crude exports through its Red Sea outlet at Yanbu.
The conflict has widened since late August, including US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Jordan, and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure that have forced some facilities to suspend operations.
The growing threat to Saudi energy infrastructure and export routes has expanded market concerns beyond Iran, with risks now extending across oil production sites, shipping lanes and other critical energy assets in the Middle East.
Control of Yemen’s Mocha port strengthens the Houthis’ position over the southern entrance to the Red Sea and raises the prospect of further disruptions to cargoes transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The development is particularly significant for Saudi Arabia, which has increasingly used its Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea coast as an alternative outlet for crude exports while Persian Gulf shipping remains restricted.
For Saudi crude loaded from Yanbu on the Red Sea, vessels heading to Asia generally need to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, then the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. Increased Houthi control therefore threatens Saudi exports that had been rerouted away from Hormuz
Rising Houthi activity threatens 4 million-5 million barrels/day of Saudi crude exports from Yanbu.
Saudi crude production fell to 6.238 million barrel/day in August, down by 1.9 million barrel/day, or 23.3%, from July and the lowest level since 1990, according to OPEC data.
Saudi Arabia, which is the de facto head of oil cartel OPEC, is the world’s largest crude exporter until the US-Iran war broke out in late February.
The decline reflected severe disruptions to export routes amid the Iran conflict, with Saudi crude exports estimated to have fallen by around one-third during the month.
Meanwhile, supply concerns have been compounded by a resurgence in Chinese crude buying after several months of subdued demand.
Independent Chinese refiners, commonly known as teapot refiners, have increased purchases of crude from West Africa, Canada and South America as reduced availability of Middle East grades forces buyers to seek alternative supplies, supporting spot prices globally.
Despite ongoing security concerns, some oil shipments manage to flow out of the Persian Gulf, with several tankers reportedly operating with transponders switched off to reduce detection risks.
Shipping risks remain elevated, with the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) receiving reports on 10 September that two vessels were struck by unidentified projectiles west of Khasab, Oman.
Brent crude has spiked by almost 80% so far in 2026, although prices remain below the conflict-driven peak of above $126/barrel in April.
Before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
RED SEA RISKS GROW
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, has become an increasingly important focus for energy markets as Houthi influence over the waterway expands.
The Yemen-based militant group has declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, raising the risk of wider disruptions to crude and refined products flows from the world’s largest oil exporter.
Investors are also monitoring demand indicators after OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for a fifth consecutive month to 380,000 barrels/day, while attention turns to the International Energy Agency’s monthly report due on 11 September.
The IEA projected global oil demand would contract by 1.25 million barrels/day in 2026 in its August outlook, and any further downgrade could offset some of the bullish impact from escalating supply disruptions.
Source: By Nurluqman Suratman, ICIS, https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/09/11/11232864/brent-crude-tops-110-bbl-before-easing-mideast-supply-concerns-deepen/