US natural gas futures held steady on Tuesday as bearish forecasts for milder weather and less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected offset a bullish drop in daily output to an eight-month low.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 0.2 cent, or 0.1%, to $3.169 per million British thermal units.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.6 bcfd so far in October.
That drop in average output so far in October was due to a combination of Hurricane Isaias production shut-ins and force majeure incidents and problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere over the past month or so.
On a daily basis, LSEG said output was on track to drop to an eight-month low of around 107.1 bcfd on Tuesday, even as production slowly returns in the Gulf of Mexico after Isaias.
The US Marine Minerals Administration, which oversees development of offshore energy, said just about 25% or 0.5 bcfd of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas was still shut-in on Monday, down from a peak of 59% or 1.3 bcfd shut-in on October 9 when Isaias crashed into the Florida Panhandle.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 103.9 bcfd this week to 106.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants fell to 17.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 17.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Around the world, gas traded at $28 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe, a 45-month high, and $26 at the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the US-Israeli war with Iran this year.
Prices in the US, however, have not reacted much to the war in Iran because the US produces all the gas it consumes domestically and US LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can.
No matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot export much more LNG until units under construction enter service in coming months and years.
Week ended Oct 9 Forecast
Week ended Oct 2 Actual
Year ago Oct 9
Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 9
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+77
+85
+80
+90
US total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,577
3,500
3,710
3,522
US total storage versus 5-year average
+1.6%
+2.0%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub
3.12
3.17
3.35
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF)
28.20
27.57
10.88
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM)
26.09
25.98
11.11
12.24
18.12
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
115
114
116
128
147
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
52
57
44
47
34
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
167
171
160
175
181
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
US Supply (bcfd)
US Lower 48 Dry Production
111.1
109.4
110.6
106.5
106.8
US Imports from Canada
7.0
7.0
7.3
7.5
8.6
US LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total US Supply
118.1
116.4
117.8
114.0
115.4
US Demand (bcfd)
US Exports to Canada
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.5
2.8
US Exports to Mexico
7.5
7.0
7.4
6.5
6.6
US LNG Export Feedgas
17.0
18.4
18.7
16.6
16.0
US Commercial
5.8
6.1
7.8
6.7
9.4
US Residential
5.1
5.1
8.0
7.5
13.4
US Power Plant
38.7
35.3
31.4
33.4
36.0
US Industrial
22.4
22.3
23.1
22.7
23.5
US Plant Fuel
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.6
US Pipe Distribution
2.1
2.0
2.1
3.0
3.5
US Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
Total US Consumption
79.8
76.4
77.9
79.1
91.6
Total US Demand
106.5
103.9
106.1
104.7
117.0
N/A = Not Available
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 % of Normal Actual
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
92
92
83
76
74
Jan-Jul
86
86
90
78
76
Oct-Sep
87
86
93
80
77
US weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA
Week ended Oct 16
Week ended Oct 9
2025
2024
2023
Wind
17
8
11
11
10
Solar
7
8
6
5
4
Hydro
4
5
6
6
6
Other
1
2
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
37
44
40
42
41
Coal
15
16
18
16
17
Nuclear
18
18
18
19
19
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub
3.10
3.10
3.19
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York
0.88
0.88
2.26
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate
3.56
3.56
3.58
3.42
5.47
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South)
0.61
0.61
2.12
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate
2.44
2.44
2.92
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate
1.17
1.17
2.51
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate
3.20
3.20
3.22
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub
1.89
1.89
0.00
1.03
2.88
AECO
1.24
1.24
0.95
1.13
2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England
54.23
36.00
44.36
77.12
61.67
PJM West
160.26
123.96
57.52
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C)
57.92
48.36
45.49
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde
20.50
25.83
26.78
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15)
27.17
36.26
27.16
28.44
53.02
(Reuters)