Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 4.7 per cent in September, after August’s jobless rate was revised upwards.
It means the national unemployment rate remains at its highest level in the post-COVID era, in seasonally adjusted terms.
An estimated 39,300 fewer Australians were in work last month, and the number of officially unemployed people increased by 8,900.
The participation rate, which is the proportion of people in work or actively looking for work, also fell, to 66.8 per cent from 67 per cent.
It means the average unemployment rate in the September quarter was 4.63 per cent, well above (and ahead of) the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 4.5 per cent for the December quarter this year.
The Bureau of Statistics data show that, in trend terms, things remained steady last month.
The trend unemployment rate remained at 4.6 per cent (with no upward revision), the participation rate held at 66.9 per cent, hours worked remained steady, and the employment-to-population ratio held at 63.8 per cent.
What do economists say?
BDO chief economist Anders Magnusson said the data suggested the RBA’s restrictive monetary policy and slow economic growth were beginning to flow more clearly into the labour market.
“Last month, unemployment increased because more people entered the labour force than found jobs,” he said.
“This month is different. Employment declined and fewer people participated in the labour market, pointing to weaker labour demand rather than stronger labour supply.
RBA hikes interest rates to 4.6pc
“The result suggests that the labour market is moving further in the direction the Reserve Bank has been seeking,” he said.
Oxford Economics Australia economist Oscar Guth said unemployment would keep rising over the next 12 months.
He expects the unemployment rate to exceed 4.8 per cent late in 2027 as the lagged effects of oil price shocks and tighter monetary policy continue to affect the labour market.
He said the RBA should have more time to be patient to assess incoming inflation data before raising rates again.
But EY senior economist Paula Gadsby said the signs of a cooling labour market did not change the monetary policy outlook.
“Looking through the monthly volatility, labour market conditions, while softer, remain somewhat resilient,” she said.
“Given persistent price pressures across the economy, we continue to expect at least one rate hike before the end of the year, potentially as soon as Melbourne Cup Day.”