The Polymarket betting website is investigating dozens of suspicious bets made this week wagering that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party would win Israel’s election, The New York Times reported Thursday, citing a spokesman for the company.
Hundreds of new accounts reportedly placed the bets just before the polls in Israel closed on Tuesday in what appears to be an attempt to manipulate prediction markets. According to The Times, data analysis company Polysights said its tools flagged “massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets” within 24 hours, adding that the spike is “definitely worth investigating.”
In the months leading to Israel’s election, shifts in the betting odds on Netanyahu or on the leading candidate to replace him, Gadi Eisenkot, drew extensive attention and news coverage. After right-wing pundit Amit Segal wrote in Israel Hayom in April that he felt like betting on Avigdor Lieberman, Lieberman’s share price on the betting website jumped fivefold.
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Polymarket is one of the most prominent platforms in the digital gambling industry today. Its users are required to bet “yes” or “no” on the team’s question about whether a certain event will occur in the future. These can be security incidents, political, sports-related, cultural or environmental events, and more. The platforms match buyers and sellers and hold the money until the event occurs.
On Tuesday, Polymarket reportedly announced surveillance efforts to “detect potential attempts to manipulate election markets, distort probabilities or manufacture apparent market consensus.” According to The New York Times, one wallet, created 18 minutes before the polls closed, placed a $14,000 bet and cashed out for $42,000 after the odds had risen.
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In July, a Haaretz analysis found that one gambler going by the username 25xp, who had previously only made one bet on Polymarket on Iran, held the largest chip stack in the bet on Netanyahu winning the election. At 4:59 P.M. Israel time on April 7, the user began buying “yes” shares in a bet on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a cease-fire by the end of that day.
At the time, the market put the odds at just 4 percent, meaning the share traded at around four cents. In under an hour, 25xp had put $18,000 into the bet. A few hours later, CNN reported that a Middle Eastern source said Washington and Tehran were reaching a deal.
In February of this year, the Shin Bet security service and Israel Police said an Israeli reservist and a civilian were charged with using classified information to place bets on Polymarket, while other reservists are suspected of the offense. The authorities made the statement after an Israeli court partially lifted the gag order on the investigation following Haaretz’s request.
The charges came a month after Kan public television reported that an anonymous user on Polymarket bet tens of thousands of dollars that Israel would strike Iran in June 2025, resulting in over $152,000 in return. The two men charged in February were indicted on security offenses and bribery charges.
With reporting by Omer Benjakob, Dani Bar On and Josh Breiner.