Political scientist Jack Drassinower assesses the coalition options, Shas’ electoral losses, and the parties that failed to enter parliament

Israel’s inconclusive October 27 election could produce another vote or a short-lived government, according to political scientist Jack Drassinower, a lecturer at the Herzl Center for Zionist Studies in Jerusalem, who sees little prospect of a durable coalition emerging from negotiations among parties divided over whom they are willing to govern with.

I think the most likely outcome at this point could be another election

“I think the most likely outcome at this point could be another election,” Drassinower told The Media Line. The alternative, he said, could be a coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot with outside support from Arab parties, “but one that might last only a very small number of months.”

The latest complete count gives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud 27 seats in the 120-member Knesset, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar with 21. Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats, eight short of a majority. The four main opposition parties have 48, while the two Arab lists hold 19 between them. Forming a government would require agreements across blocs whose leaders have made conflicting commitments about potential partners.

Drassinower expects Netanyahu to approach opposition figures, particularly former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman. He suggested that Netanyahu could offer to share the premiership in exchange for their participation.

Netanyahu’s strongest bargaining chip is a rotating premiership

“Netanyahu’s strongest bargaining chip is a rotating premiership,” he said.

Such an arrangement could divide the opposition, but both Bennett and Liberman have publicly rejected serving in a Netanyahu-led government. Liberman has also ruled out governing with the ultra-Orthodox parties or depending on Arab-party support.

In statements following the election, Liberman reaffirmed that his acceptable coalition would consist exclusively of Zionist parties, potentially including Likud without Netanyahu. He also rejected supporting a minority government, even from outside the coalition.

Those restrictions complicate Eisenkot’s efforts to assemble an alternative government.

“The opposition began by saying it would not join any coalition with Netanyahu, or work with Arab parties or the ultra-Orthodox,” Drassinower said. “So, the question is: with whom?”

The opposition’s positions are not uniform. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, have expressed openness to cooperation with Arab parties, while Bennett and Liberman oppose such an arrangement.

The Arab parties’ record representation gives the dispute practical importance. Ra’am won eight seats, while the Joint List secured 11. Adding Ra’am alone to the opposition’s 48 would produce 56 seats, short of a parliamentary majority. Including both Arab lists would raise the total to 67, provided all four opposition parties agreed.

That calculation becomes more difficult if Liberman’s seven lawmakers refuse to participate. The remaining opposition parties and both Arab lists would command 60 seats, leaving them without an absolute majority.

Israeli law permits a minority government to take office without 61 affirmative votes, provided it receives more votes in favor than against in the Knesset’s confidence vote. Such an arrangement could depend on abstentions or outside support, but Liberman’s stated opposition would make it difficult to secure.

Drassinower nevertheless argued that Eisenkot could not dismiss cooperation with Arab parties. He interpreted their electoral gains partly as a demand for greater political inclusion, alongside frustration over crime and insecurity in Arab communities.

The opposition has to understand that it cannot ignore the Arab parties’ 19 seats

“The opposition has to understand that it cannot ignore the Arab parties’ 19 seats,” he said.

Any arrangement involving their support would likely require negotiations over policy priorities, government spending, and measures addressing conditions in Arab communities.

Drassinower also raised a more speculative possibility: Netanyahu seeking Ra’am’s support. Its eight seats would bring his existing bloc to exactly 61 if all its current partners remained together. Such an agreement would face substantial political obstacles, and Drassinower did not suggest that negotiations were underway.

The coalition calculations have also been affected by Shas’ considerable electoral losses. The ultra-Orthodox party received 299,506 votes, down from 392,964 in 2022, and will hold six seats instead of 11. The decline of 93,458 votes represents nearly a quarter of its previous support. United Torah Judaism, by contrast, retained its seven seats.

Drassinower attributed part of Shas’ decline to its increasingly restrictive position on military conscription, which he believes has alienated some traditional Sephardic supporters who do not identify with the ultra-Orthodox community’s opposition to military service.

“Perhaps the clearest example is its opposition to conscription,” he said.

According to Drassinower, Shas initially defended exemptions for young men studying in religious institutions but subsequently adopted a broader position opposing conscription among the ultra-Orthodox population. He argued that this troubled more moderate supporters, including people who “work, study, and serve in the army.”

Some of those voters may have moved to Likud, Drassinower suggested, although the election results alone cannot establish such a shift. He believes the losses could complicate Shas leader Aryeh Deri’s coalition decisions, particularly because Netanyahu remains both a longstanding political ally and a competitor for traditional voters.

Two smaller political alliances also suffered defeats after failing to meet the 3.25% electoral threshold.

The combined list of Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists Party and Yaron Zelekha’s Economic Party received 2.72% of valid votes, falling approximately 30,000 votes short of parliamentary representation. Former military commander Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael received 1.68%, missing the threshold by approximately 89,000 votes.

Drassinower believes Winter’s campaign suffered from uncertainty about its political loyalties. Winter pledged support for Netanyahu, but Netanyahu’s campaign questioned whether he would ultimately join the opposition. Potential supporters may also have been discouraged by the possibility that voting for Winter would leave their ballots without parliamentary representation.

The Reservists-Economic Party alliance faced a different problem, according to Drassinower. He described the partnership as a technical electoral arrangement that struggled to establish a unified political identity. Although Zelekha brought an economic platform, Drassinower argued that the combined list failed to develop a sufficiently coherent message beyond reservists’ concerns and military service.

Neither list will have lawmakers participating in coalition negotiations. Determining whether their exclusion cost either political camp a parliamentary majority would require knowing how their supporters would otherwise have voted and recalculating the distribution of seats.

Drassinower doubts that another election would necessarily resolve the divisions separating the major parties.

A rotation agreement offers a possible alternative, but Netanyahu’s previous arrangement with Benny Gantz provides a cautionary precedent. Following the March 2020 election, Netanyahu and Gantz formed a unity government under which Netanyahu was to serve as prime minister for 18 months before handing the position to Gantz for an equivalent period.

That transfer never occurred. The government collapsed in December 2020 after failing to pass a state budget, triggering another election before Gantz could assume the premiership.

Any opposition leader considering a similar agreement would have to weigh that experience while negotiating the terms of a new arrangement.

The big question now is: Who would serve first in that rotation?

As Drassinower put it: “The big question now is: Who would serve first in that rotation?”