A new Dutch study, looking at whether the rising sea levels projected by many scientists are actually materializing, found that in 95% of the locations deemed suitable for study, there was “no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise.”
To make matters worse for environmental activists fond of crying wolf, in the remaining 5% of cases, “(t)he investigation suggests that local, non-climatic phenomena are a plausible cause of the accelerated sea level rise observed.”
The study, “A Global Perspective on Local Sea Level Changes,” revealed that the average sea level rise in 2020 was approximately 1.5 mm per year—equivalent to about 6 inches per century—according to authors Hessel Voortman, a Dutch engineering consultant, and Rob de Vos, an independent researcher. That number is significantly lower than the rate frequently quoted in the media from climate scientists—3 to 4 mm per year. The researchers say sea levels were at a low in 1993 and a high in 2020, and that, accounting for these natural fluctuations, no clear sea level rise is detectable.
This is the first global study of actual sea level rise that is based on real-world data instead of relying on models. Voortman said in an interview he was shocked that nobody had done this type of study before. He noted that the study was also unique in that it was conducted entirely without external funding. With over 30 years of experience as a hydraulic engineer, he has worked on flood protection and coastal infrastructure adaptation projects around the globe and in 2023 published a study showing sea levels around the Dutch coast were indeed not rising, contrary to projections.
The study says the models of the IPCC—the UN’s climate panel—“significantly overestimate local sea level rise in 2020,” according to a press release. Despite this, Voortman did not dismiss working with models but stressed the importance of understanding the difference between them and real-world local studies for practical applications.
“For over a quarter-century the world’s leading climate scientists and news media have warned that human-caused climate change has doubled the rate of sea level rise and is thus putting civilization in grave danger,” American journalist Michael Shellenberger wrote after interviewing Voortman. “All of those claims have been proven false.”