The government is beginning to reopen after President Donald Trump signed a House-passed funding package on Wednesday night, ending the record 43-day shutdown. But the White House has suggested the inflation and jobs data skipped during the shutdown may be permanently lost, just a few weeks before the Federal Reserve will weigh in on December rate cuts.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical System with October CPI [Consumer Price Index] and jobs reports likely never being released,\u201d White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told<\/a> reporters on Wednesday. \u201cAll of that economic data released will be permanently impaired leaving our policy makers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.\u201d<\/p>\n The government shutdown began on Oct. 1 and lasted almost two weeks into November as Republicans and Democrats clashed over spending packages and their inclusion of funding the Affordable Care Act\u2019s enhanced premium tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of 2025, leading to potential spikes in premiums for millions of Americans. The Senate will vote on the issue next month, as part of the spending package that was just passed.<\/p>\n As the government begins to reopen on Thursday, official numbers on last month\u2019s inflation and jobs that were presumed to be only postponed may never be released, according to the White House.<\/p>\n This would be the first time in history monthly government data for the economic indicators would be missed since they started being tracked. Staff members at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were furloughed during the shutdown, preventing the agency from being able to collect data throughout October.<\/p>\n The Current Population Survey, established in 1948, is carried out jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the BLS, and polls about 60,000 households each month. The data collected from the survey is used to produce the BLS\u2019 \u201cEmployment Situation<\/a>,\u201d a comprehensive official jobs report.<\/p>\n \u201cFor the first time in over 900 months, the Current Population Survey (CPS) may not gather monthly information from a representative sample of American households about whether they\u2019re working or looking for work,\u201d Friends of BLS, an independent coalition established by major statistical, business, and research organizations, wrote<\/a> on its website on Wednesday.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the BLS first published<\/a> a national Consumer Price Index<\/a> (CPI), or inflation data, in 1921, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.<\/p>\n Despite the gap in data, an 80% majority of economists predict the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point on December 10, according to a Reuters poll of 105 economists. This would bring down rates to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third quarter-point reduction in a row.<\/p>\n The last Fed interest rate cut was at its October meeting, where despite no monthly government data on jobs and inflation, Fed Chair Powell said<\/a> the decision was made as signs pointed to a cooling labor market and moderating inflation.<\/p>\n Some economists see this trend continuing.<\/p>\n \u201cThe general sense is the labor market still looks relatively weak and that\u2019s one of the key reasons why we think the FOMC will continue to deliver that December cut,\u201d Abigail Watt, U.S. economist at UBS, told<\/a> Reuters.<\/p>\n Still, other economists aren\u2019t so sure. Torsten Sl\u00f8k, chief economist at Apollo Global Management<\/a>, estimates the prices on 55% of items that make up the CPI are rising faster than 3%, outpacing the Fed\u2019s target inflation rate of 2%.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is the reason why it is difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in December,\u201d Sl\u00f8k wrote<\/a> on Wednesday.<\/p>\n