{"id":152508,"date":"2025-11-25T18:43:13","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T18:43:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/152508\/"},"modified":"2025-11-25T18:43:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T18:43:13","slug":"us-dollar-forecast-dxy-breaks-below-200-day-ma-on-weak-jobs-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/152508\/","title":{"rendered":"US Dollar Forecast: DXY Breaks Below 200-Day MA on Weak Jobs Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At 15:42 GMT, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 99.758, down 0.427 or -0.43%.<\/p>\n<p>Treasuries Rally as Jobs Picture Softens<\/p>\n<p>The 10-year yield dipped below 4.01%, down a couple of basis points, while the long bond fell 3 bps to 4.647%. The 2-year barely moved. The message from the curve: traders are buying into the soft-landing story \u2014 or at least pricing like they are.<\/p>\n<p>ADP\u2019s private payroll data showed companies shed an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past month, a sharp pickup from the 2,500 in the prior reading. Consumer confidence took a hit too \u2014 the Conference Board\u2019s November print came in at 88.7, the weakest since April and well below the 93.2 consensus.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation Fading From the Picture<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxempire.com\/macro\/united-states\/producer-prices\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">September\u2019s PPI<\/a> release is stale, but it still matters. Core came in at 0.1%, cooler than the 0.2% expected \u2014 more fodder for the doves. As Bellwether Wealth\u2019s Clark Bellin put it, the read helps justify another cut in December since inflation looks contained and the labor market is clearly cooling.<\/p>\n<p>Fed Speakers Split, But Markets Lean Dovish<\/p>\n<p>Fed futures are pricing an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 10 meeting, which would bring the target range to 3.50\u20133.75%. Williams, Daly, and Waller have all signaled they\u2019re comfortable easing further. Collins is the outlier \u2014 she\u2019s leaning against a move, calling the current stance \u201cmildly restrictive\u201d and \u201cappropriate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bottom Line<\/p>\n<p>The dollar\u2019s on its back foot, and the data isn\u2019t giving bulls much to work with. Soft jobs numbers, weak confidence, and tame inflation are all pointing toward another rate cut. Until something shifts the narrative \u2014 or buyers reclaim 100.395 \u2014 the path of least resistance is lower.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"At 15:42 GMT, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 99.758, down 0.427 or -0.43%. Treasuries Rally as&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":152509,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2792,39211,24531,2794,20046,42,92745,92746,43,2797,40,38,41,39,2799,92747,7262],"class_list":["post-152508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-daily","tag-eur-usd","tag-forex","tag-fundamental","tag-gbp-usd","tag-headlines","tag-home-page-5","tag-james_dxy_ta","tag-news","tag-technical","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories","tag-us-dollar-index","tag-usd-cad","tag-usd-jpy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=152508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152508\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/152509"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=152508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=152508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=152508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}