With another set of global climate talks behind us, the Australian government faces some tricky tasks before it takes over negotiations at the next round of talks next year in Turkey. <\/p>\n
Cop30 in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil, did not deliver the bold fossil fuel phase-out roadmap we needed, but it did nudge the system forward with more scrutiny of fossil fuel producers. <\/p>\n
And despite the weakness of the outcome, one can gain some important comfort by the fact that B\u00e9lem \u2013 and the G20 in Johannesburg at the weekend \u2013 both solidly endorsed the Paris agreement, its central goal of keeping warming to 1.5C and the importance of net zero emissions. <\/p>\n
Cop30 agreed that an \u201cambition accelerator\u201d will be needed to fill the gap between what governments are planning (projected to warm the world by 2.6C) and the agreed guardrails of the Paris agreement: a limit of 1.5C.<\/p>\n
It also, crucially, began the momentum for developing a roadmap for a just transition away from fossil fuels, with more than 80 countries \u2013 including Australia \u2013 signing the \u201cBel\u00e9m declaration\u201d<\/a> on a transition away from fossil fuels.<\/p>\n While this declaration didn\u2019t get support from the whole conference, Brazil\u2019s president, Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, has promised to move forward on its implementation during the course of this year, until he hands over to Cop31<\/a> in Turkey.<\/p>\n And there, Australia, under its deal with Turkey<\/a>, will take over that momentum.<\/p>\n But there are significant questions as to whether the government will be able \u2013 or more importantly willing \u2013 to move this momentum for a fossil fuel phase-out forward. <\/p>\n This is especially so given that the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has just doubled down<\/a> on his patently false claim that gas is needed for the energy transition.<\/p>\n The International Energy Agency released its annual report<\/a> in the first week of Cop30. Its net zero emissions pathway confirms our concerns about Australian gas. The IEA\u2019s new net zero scenario clearly states there is no need for new long-lead oil and gas projects, or coalmines. <\/p>\n It says fossil gas use needs to reduce quickly to 40% below today\u2019s levels by 2035. Importantly, it also warns that a massive glut of liquefied natural gas supply is developing, a glut that is consistent with the IEA\u2019s current policy scenario that would warm the world by 3C by 2100.<\/p>\n Gas is not needed to replace coal, and is not doing so<\/a> across Asia \u2013 the destination for the vast majority of Australian fossil gas exports.<\/p>\n Add to this the leaked Deloitte draft report to the Western Australian government that warned<\/a> Australia\u2019s gas export bonanza to Asia would crowd out renewables and lock in CO2 emissions for years to come.<\/p>\n