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Figure 1<\/p>\n
The current conditions component of the CCI fell to 88.7 in November, which isn\u2019t as bad as the overall average COI (Fig. 2<\/a> below). However, the current conditions CSI, at 50.3, is much worse than the CCI\u2019s 88.7 comparable current conditions component. The expectations component of the COI, CSI, and CCI are all down in the same depressing neighborhood, at 57.1, 51.0, and 63.2 (Fig. 3<\/a>).<\/p>\n It\u2019s not clear why consumer expectations are uniformly depressed. The divergence between the current conditions CSI and CCI is especially puzzling. The former tends to reflect inflationary expectations, while the latter reflects labor market conditions. As we\u2019ve noted before, we have more confidence in the CCI than in the CSI, which seems to be chronically pessimistic, especially in recent years.<\/p>\n The Misery Index, which is the sum of the unemployment rate and the CPI inflation rate (on a y\/y basis), is relatively low at 7.4% during September (Fig. 4<\/a> and Fig. 5<\/a>). It has averaged 9.0% since the late 1940s. The Misery Index has been inversely correlated with both the CCI and CSI (Fig. 6<\/a> and Fig. 7<\/a>). However, in recent years, the CSI has been depressed even though there is less misery.<\/p>\n Consider the following reasons for less misery, which one would expect to produce high levels of consumer optimism:<\/p>\n Join thousands who rely on QuickTakes<\/p>\n Unlock the rest of this QuickTakes post \u2014 plus all premium content<\/p>\n \u2713 5\u20138 market-moving QuickTakes each week (vs 1\u20133 on free)Figure 2<\/p>\n
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