{"id":170617,"date":"2025-12-06T02:41:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-06T02:41:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/170617\/"},"modified":"2025-12-06T02:41:16","modified_gmt":"2025-12-06T02:41:16","slug":"why-is-deal-maker-donald-trump-unable-to-foster-a-deal-between-russia-and-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/170617\/","title":{"rendered":"Why is deal maker Donald Trump unable to foster a deal between Russia and Ukraine?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Why Russian President Vladimir Putin has thrown cold water on the latest diplomatic push to end the Ukraine war, bluntly warning that Russia will take the rest of Donbas “by force” unless Ukrainian troops pull back, as India Today reported. His declaration, delivered as he arrived in India, came alongside a dismissal of key elements of Washington\u2019s leaked peace plan as “unacceptable,” specifying that weeks of late-night calls, quiet diplomacy and US mediation have done little to shift Moscow\u2019s position.In the interview, Putin again framed the conflict not as an invasion but as a Western-engineered war “waged through Ukraine,” a narrative that leaves almost no room for compromise and signals the fighting is far from over. <\/p>\n

Ukraine Pounds Russia With Massive 41-Drone Onslaught As Putin Holds Meetings In India<\/p>\n

Months earlier, Donald Trump had invited Putin to Alaska for direct talks on ending the war. Putin flew in to meet his American counterpart, but the conversation failed to move him. The much-publicised meeting ended without progress, denying Washington the diplomatic breakthrough it hoped would jump-start a path to settlement. \"Russia-Ukraine However, Donald Trump has positioned himself as a deal-maker in the Ukraine conflict, with envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff meeting Putin in the Kremlin to discuss a US peace plan. Trump called the talks \u201creasonably good\u201d but admitted uncertainty over the next steps, amid confusion over which version of the plan is under discussion.Kyiv has drawn clear red lines, insisting on \u201creal peace, not appeasement,\u201d while European leaders worry a deal could pressure Ukraine to cede territory without strong security guarantees. With Putin demanding maximal concessions and Ukraine defending its sovereignty, Trump\u2019s promised \u201cbig deal\u201d clashes with the reality that both sides envision fundamentally different wars and peace.What Ukraine wants from Russia \u2014 and from this warFor Ukraine, the war is not simply about stopping the fighting; it is about ensuring that Russia cannot invade again. Kyiv\u2019s position has been shaped by both battlefield losses and the lessons of the past decade, starting from Crimea\u2019s annexation in 2014 to the full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainian leaders argue that any peace deal must not just pause the war, but guarantee Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty, security and democratic choice.No territorial concessions that reward aggression: President Volodymyr Zelensky and government officials insist that Ukraine will not formally surrender land that Russia seized through force. Kyiv has repeatedly warned that conceding territory now would encourage future invasions\u2014just as the world\u2019s slow response after Crimea\u2019s annexation paved the path for the 2022 invasion. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha recently invoked the 1938 Munich Agreement, saying Ukraine seeks \u201creal peace, not appeasement.\u201dSecurity guarantees so Russia cannot attack again: Ukraine wants binding, long-term defence assurances from Western allies\u2014ideally NATO membership, or a legally enforceable alternative. Zelensky\u2019s team argues that without firm guarantees, any ceasefire becomes a pause before Russia rebuilds and attacks again. Kyiv has already shown some flexibility by prioritising an unconditional ceasefire first, but insists guarantees must follow.Accountability for war crimes and forced deportations: Ukraine demands justice over Russia\u2019s forced transfers of children, missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, and mass killings in occupied zones. The return of deported children remains a critical condition. Seven children were returned this week, prompting Kyiv to call it a \u201chumanitarian priority tied to peace.\u201dFreedom to choose its alliances and political future: Under the US draft plan, Ukraine would be pressured to give up its right to join NATO. Kyiv rejects such restrictions, arguing that sovereignty cannot be traded as part of a bargain. For Ukraine, peace must not come at the cost of independence or the right to decide its own political and military future. \"What What Russia wants from Ukraine \u2014 and from this warFor Moscow, the conflict is not only about territory \u2014 it is about controlling the future of Ukraine and reshaping Europe\u2019s security order. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly framed the war as a defence against Western influence, insisting that peace is only possible if Ukraine accepts limits on its sovereignty and status. Russia\u2019s demands remain maximalist, even as negotiations continue behind the scenes.Legal recognition of territorial gains in Donbas and Crimea: Putin insists that Ukraine must either withdraw from all of Donbas or Russia will seize it \u201cby force.\u201d In his India Today interview ahead of the Delhi visit, he stated: \u201cEither we liberate these territories by force, or Ukrainian troops will leave these territories.\u201d Moscow wants international recognition of Crimea and occupied Donbas as Russian territory, a condition Kyiv calls political suicide. Russia believes that without formal recognition, Ukraine will eventually try to retake its land, keeping the conflict alive.A permanently weakened Ukrainian state with no Nato membership: Top Russian officials demand written, binding guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and that its military will be limited. The leaked US peace draft mirrors this, proposing that Ukraine reduce its armed forces and constitutionally drop any future NATO aspiration. For Putin, Ukraine\u2019s independence is acceptable only if it stays militarily weak and geopolitically neutral \u2014 a buffer zone, not an autonomous European state.A pro-Russian security order that sidelines Europe: Putin argues Europe has \u201cexcluded itself\u201d from peace talks, claiming that European governments are \u201con the side of war.\u201d Moscow prefers negotiating with Washington alone, believing it can secure concessions through Trump\u2019s transactional diplomacy. Russia\u2019s demand for an internationally recognised agreement, backed by the U.S. but without NATO\u2019s involvement, reflects a broader ambition: rewriting Europe\u2019s security rules without Europe at the table.Time, not compromise, as leverage: Despite sanctions, military losses, and a shrinking oil market, the Kremlin believes continued pressure will eventually break Ukraine and exhaust Western support. Analysts note that Moscow\u2019s strategy is to prolong the war until Kyiv is too weak economically and militarily to resist harsh peace terms. As one European leader warned in a leaked call: \u201cUkraine must be extremely careful in the coming days. They are playing games, both with you and with us.\u201d \"1\"<\/p>\n

Credit: Institute for the study of War<\/p>\n

Why Donald Trump cannot persuade Vladimir Putin? <\/p>\n

Despite sending envoys, dangling sanctions relief, hinting at arms pressure on Ukraine, and publicly claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin \u201cwould like to end the war,\u201d Donald Trump is discovering that a ceasefire is not a negotiation \u2014 it is leverage. Trump views peace as a deal that benefits all sides, whereas Putin views peace as a victory that ends Ukraine\u2019s independence on Russian terms. The gap between both leaders is not diplomatic, it is ideological. Putin is signalling that Russia still has more to gain from prolonging the war rather than compromising. The optics of Washington \u201cseeking peace\u201d while he dictates conditions and rejects proposals only strengthen his hand. This was evident during the five-hour meeting held with Trump\u2019s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow, which ended with no breakthrough. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov publicly confirmed that Russia criticised elements of the American plan and refused to commit to a summit or further steps, indicating that the process remains deliberately slow \u2014 benefiting Moscow. \".\" Putin\u2019s stance stems from a desire not for compromise, but for recognition. The Kremlin is not interested in a negotiated end that keeps Ukraine as a free, sovereign, and militarily capable democracy allied with the West. Russia\u2019s objectives include legally recognised control over territories such as Crimea and Donbas, a permanently weakened Ukrainian military with capped troop levels and missile ranges, and binding guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, potentially written into Kyiv\u2019s constitution. Even after the United States softened parts of its draft peace plan following criticism from Kyiv and European governments, Putin reiterated in an interview that Russia would still take Donbas \u201cby force if necessary\u201d and that some American proposals remained \u201cunacceptable.\u201d This demonstrates that the Kremlin is not negotiating peace \u2014 it is negotiating legalised surrender.What Trump misreads is the nature of Putin\u2019s objective. Trump believes that an economic trade-off \u2014 through sanctions relief or trade incentives \u2014 could end the conflict. This transactional outlook reflects Trump\u2019s real-estate mindset. But Russia is not fighting for transactional gain; it is fighting for strategic identity. Putin wants Ukraine as a neutral buffer state under limited sovereignty, unable to rebuild its army or forge Western alliances. He does not want peace; he wants Ukraine dependent on Russia, and he sees diplomacy as a tool to shape that outcome on Moscow\u2019s terms.This imbalance is amplified by time. For Putin, time is a resource. For Trump, time is a political burden. Trump can pressure Ukraine by threatening to cut aid, but he cannot pressure Russia because sanctions relief, economic cooperation, or diplomatic incentives do not threaten Putin\u2019s rule. Moreover, Russia\u2019s slow but steady advances on the battlefield favour Moscow\u2019s patience, not Washington\u2019s urgency. Putin faces no elections, no domestic institutional checks, and no funding battles \u2014 whereas Trump faces all three. As a result, Russia can stall, pushing negotiations toward a settlement that reflects battlefield gains rather than diplomatic compromises. \".\" In this geopolitical context, negotiation itself becomes part of Putin\u2019s war strategy. Each meeting, each draft revision, and each diplomatic gesture shifts the world closer to treating Russia\u2019s aggression as a legitimate territorial dispute. As one Moscow analyst put it, the United States is now \u201cbegging Russia to make peace,\u201d a reversal the Kremlin has long envisioned. Negotiation gives Russia what neither sanctions nor war could guarantee: legitimacy. It transforms invasion into \u201cterms\u201d and territorial seizure into \u201cclaims,\u201d turning diplomacy into the most powerful weapon Moscow wields.Why White House is dictating compromising terms to UkraineWashington\u2019s pressure on Kyiv stems from a shift in US priorities rather than a shift in moral position. After nearly four years of war, Trump\u2019s administration is not seeking victory for Ukraine or punishment for Russia \u2014 it is seeking closure for America. The White House wants a rapid ceasefire that ends financial commitments, reduces the burden on US taxpayers, and frees Washington to focus on domestic politics and other geopolitical theatres. In this calculus, Ukraine is no longer a partner fighting for survival, but a variable in a cost\u2013benefit equation. This explains why Trump\u2019s team is pushing Kyiv to accept territorial concessions, restrictions on its army, and a constitutional bar on joining Nato \u2014 demands that align closely with Russia\u2019s interests.The United States believes that any peace deal must be achievable in the short term and enforceable without long-term US military involvement. That means negotiating terms that Russia would agree to, even if Ukraine cannot accept them without political or territorial losses. For the White House, peace is defined not by justice or security, but by enforceability and speed. A peace framework that limits Ukraine\u2019s missile range, caps its army size, and seals off NATO membership offers Washington an exit at minimal cost. It does not matter that such clauses could leave Ukraine vulnerable to another invasion later.Another motivation behind the White House\u2019s approach is strategic signalling. Trump wants to prove that his administration can \u201cstop wars\u201d without using traditional military power, portraying diplomacy as a transactional achievement. By presenting a plan that Russia acknowledges as a basis for negotiations, Washington can claim progress \u2014 even if the terms weaken Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty. This transactional diplomacy is being framed as statesmanship, but it risks turning Ukraine into a precedent where aggressive territorial conquest is rewarded with legal recognition. \"9\"<\/p>\n

Credit: Institute for the study of War<\/p>\n

Europe is alarmed because these backdoor negotiations bypass European security concerns while reshaping the continent\u2019s borders. Leaked discussions from European leaders reveal fears that Washington is ready to \u201cbetray Ukraine on territory without clarity on security guarantees.\u201d The consequences of such a deal would not stop at Ukraine; it could redefine how borders are changed globally, emboldening not only Russia but future revisionist powers.Ultimately, the White House\u2019s pressure reflects a fundamental shift: instead of backing Ukraine\u2019s resistance, the US is trying to manage Ukraine\u2019s retreat. Washington is not dictating peace for Ukraine\u2019s future \u2014 it is dictating peace for America\u2019s exit. \"2\"<\/p>\n

Credit: Institute for the study of War<\/p>\n

What former US diplomat said about Trump\u2019s failed peace push<\/p>\n

Former US permanent representative to Nato Ivo Daalder argues that Donald Trump\u2019s approach to the Ukraine war cannot succeed because it treats diplomacy like a private business deal rather than a structured foreign policy process. According to Daalder, the White House is attempting to negotiate peace between two countries with \u201cdiametrically opposed goals,\u201d but is doing so without any formal strategy, institutional coordination, or involvement of key national security bodies. Instead of an interagency framework \u2014 the norm in previous administrations \u2014 decisions are being made impulsively at the president\u2019s desk, driven by personality and improvisation.Daalder notes that Trump has empowered a small inner circle consisting of Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, envoy Steve Witkoff, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Trump\u2019s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Of these, only Rubio has a functioning bureaucratic apparatus behind him. Military leadership, the Pentagon, intelligence agencies, and high-level strategic planners have been sidelined \u2014 leaving complex geopolitical bargaining in the hands of businessmen and political loyalists. This absence of structured policy-making has turned peace negotiations into what Daalder describes as a \u201crollercoaster\u201d of contradictory statements, draft agreements, leaks and inconsistent messaging to Ukraine, Europe and Russia. \"3\"<\/p>\n

Credit: Institute for the study of War<\/p>\n

The result is chaos, not diplomacy. Daalder warns that Trump\u2019s team has no unified understanding of what real peace requires, only a single political goal \u2014 to portray Trump as a global peacemaker. That pursuit, he cautions, could lead to hasty deals, missteps and pressures that undermine Ukraine while still failing to produce a durable settlement. \u201cAs long as the effort is about satisfying Trump\u2019s demand to be recognized as the world\u2019s peacemaker,\u201d Daalder writes, \u201cthe confusion will continue \u2014 and the war will be no closer to ending.\u201dIs Russia and Ukraine closer to a peace deal United States President Donald Trump is stepping up his diplomatic drive to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine, with special envoy Steve Witkoff heading to Moscow next week and US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll scheduled to meet Ukrainian officials in the coming days. The intensified outreach follows months of criticism over Washington\u2019s original 28-point peace plan, which was leaked and widely condemned for appearing to reward Russia with Ukrainian territory captured since 2014. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump insisted that \u201cwe\u2019re making progress\u201d on a revised framework and claimed that Kyiv was now \u201chappy\u201d with the direction of negotiations, suggesting the new version reflects more Ukrainian priorities than Moscow\u2019s. \"4\"<\/p>\n

Credit: Institute for the study of War<\/p>\n

The original proposal, drafted largely by Jared Kushner and Witkoff, offered sweeping political and territorial concessions to Russia. It required Ukraine to relinquish the entire Donbas region, accept Russian control over Crimea and large parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, slash its military to no more than 600,000 troops, and renounce NATO membership permanently through a constitutional amendment. The plan also included controversial provisions such as blanket amnesty for combatants and a requirement that Russia merely pledge \u201cnon-aggression\u201d toward Europe. After it leaked, Ukrainian officials condemned the idea as legalised surrender, while angry reactions from the public revealed how unacceptable territorial concessions remain for a country still facing daily bombardment. European allies, who had been sidelined from the negotiations, warned that the proposal risked breaking Europe\u2019s security architecture. The UK, France and Germany presented an alternative plan allowing Ukraine to join NATO in the future and proposed a larger military force of up to 800,000 soldiers, while European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen declared that \u201cpeace built on forced concessions would guarantee the next war.\u201dThe revised 19-point plan emerged after intense negotiations between senior US and Ukrainian officials in Geneva. According to Kyiv\u2019s First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya, the talks were \u201cpositive\u201d but nearly collapsed at the start due to deep disagreements. Most controversial ideas from the initial draft were reportedly stripped out, including the troop cap, blanket amnesties and heavy restrictions on Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty. Kyslytsya said \u201cvery few things are left from the original version,\u201d adding that highly sensitive questions \u2014 NATO membership and the status of occupied territories \u2014 were left for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Trump to decide. An unnamed US official also suggested that changes were made to earlier provisions limiting NATO troop presence in Ukraine, after Russia falsely claimed that Western soldiers were already fighting on the ground. \"5\"<\/p>\n

Credit: Institute for the study of War<\/p>\n

Despite the revisions, Russia has not been involved in these negotiations and there is no guarantee President Vladimir Putin will accept the updated plan. Moscow continues to demand full control over all territories it has declared annexed, including parts it does not currently occupy, and seeks binding guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that any deal must reflect the \u201cspirit and letter\u201d of Trump\u2019s earlier discussions with Putin in Alaska \u2014 signalling that Russia will expect the US to honour the most pro-Kremlin clauses in the original document. Russian officials have also expressed anger over changes that could weaken Moscow\u2019s bargaining leverage. Meanwhile, Driscoll held talks with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi, although both sides confirmed that the peace plan was not discussed. \"6\"<\/p>\n

Credit: Institute for the study of War<\/p>\n

The next step now depends on a direct meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, though the timeline remains unclear as Washington enters Thanksgiving recess. Trump said he will meet Putin and Zelenskyy \u201conly when the deal to end this war is final or in its final stages,\u201d and declared that achieving peace is his administration\u2019s priority. However, Kremlin sources quoted by Al Jazeera say there is \u201cdeep uncertainty\u201d in Moscow and reluctance to accept revisions that dilute Russia\u2019s demands. With one plan backed by Washington and Kyiv, and another still implicitly favoured by Russia, negotiators acknowledge that the war is no closer to ending unless Moscow agrees to compromise \u2014 something it has not done so far. \"11\"<\/p>\n

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