So yes, AI is a major fear factor for the US economy. Curiously, 50% of our audience thought the US would grow more slowly in 2026 than in 2025.<\/p>\n
But geopolitics is a bigger flashpoint. 37% said that was the biggest risk next year. And remember \u2013 risks can be good and bad.<\/p>\n
One of the major questions for the end of the year and start of 2026 is whether a peace deal can be agreed between Russia and Ukraine. For the economy, a lot depends on how long-lasting it\u2019s perceived to be. And the extent to which the trickier topics \u2013 such as territorial recognition – are addressed. For energy markets, much depends on sanctions. Warren Patterson argues that if US sanctions prove more effective than currently thought, it would be a key upside risk to oil prices in 2026.<\/p>\n
That matters for inflation, which only 11% of people thought was the biggest risk next year. We, too, think inflation is more likely to fall next year, for largely cyclical reasons. But it\u2019s something we\u2019re watching.<\/p>\n
I floated<\/a> a scenario a couple of weeks back whereby a combination of so-called tariff rebate checks to Americans, coupled with lower tariffs, a more structurally dovish Fed committee and a supply-constrained global economy could conceivably trigger an inflation resurgence in the latter part of 2026. We\u2019ve long argued that inflation is likely to remain higher and more volatile over the coming years.<\/p>\n