{"id":173357,"date":"2025-12-08T03:54:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T03:54:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/173357\/"},"modified":"2025-12-08T03:54:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-08T03:54:08","slug":"interest-rate-cut-hopes-crushed-as-three-of-the-biggest-banks-reverse-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/173357\/","title":{"rendered":"Interest rate cut hopes crushed as three of the biggest banks reverse forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post- wp-image-1084431\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1084431\" data-capiid=\"f6f56dd692f5052c24a408df61abe44f\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"RBA PRESS CONFERENCE\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1084431\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">RBA Governor Michele Bullock is expected to annoucne a rates hold in December. Picture: NewsWire \/ Nikki Short<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Australian homeowners have been dealt a brutal blow, with three of the nation\u2019s biggest banks now unequivocally ruling out any further RBA cash rate cuts in this cycle. <\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">ANZ has dramatically reversed its forecast, joining Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank in predicting the cash rate will remain on hold throughout 2026, effectively shattering borrower dreams of cheaper repayments and raising the spectre of potential rate hikes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Westpac now remains the only major bank, expecting two further cuts in May and August next year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">With inflation moving in the wrong direction and unemployment falling back to 4.3 per cent, Canstar data insights director, Sally Tindall said there was no case for a further rate cut in the near term. <\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">MORE NEWS<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/fedup-residents-fight-back-in-suburban-parking-wars-with-vigilante-tactics\/?campaignType=external&amp;campaignChannel=syndication&amp;campaignName=ncacont&amp;campaignContent=&amp;campaignSource=newscomau&amp;campaignPlacement=realestatemodule\" title=\"www.realestate.com.au\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u2018A joke\u2019: Fury over suburban parking chaos<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/caravan-industry-on-notice-as-shocking-video-reveals-shoddy-workmanship\/?campaignType=external&amp;campaignChannel=syndication&amp;campaignName=ncacont&amp;campaignContent=&amp;campaignSource=newscomau&amp;campaignPlacement=realestatemodule\" title=\"www.realestate.com.au\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Shoddy caravans costing owners thousands in repairs<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/homeowners-forced-to-cut-christmas-spending-to-keep-up-with-mortgage-repayments\/?campaignType=external&amp;campaignChannel=syndication&amp;campaignName=ncacont&amp;campaignContent=&amp;campaignSource=the_advertiser&amp;campaignPlacement=realestatemodule\" title=\"www.realestate.com.au\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Chaos builds as mortgage holders face December<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">She said the RBA would almost certainly keep rates on hold when it meets next week on December 8 and 9.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cWhile the RBA is unlikely to start hiking rates without plenty of notice, if inflation continues to move in the wrong direction, the next move from the central bank could be up rather than down,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cCertainly, if term deposit rates are the canary in the coal mine, then further cash rate cuts are unlikely.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post- wp-image-1084408\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1084408\" data-capiid=\"b6d8df105e71f507c2be901420ad4aef\" width=\"661\" height=\"214\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 661 214&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"Supplied Real Estate Source: Canstar.com.au.\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Are borrowers prepared for rates to remain on hold? <\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Canstar\u2019s Consumer Pulse Report, released this week, found that 66 per cent of borrowers are prepared for rates to remain on hold in 2026, with 34 per cent either not prepared or not sure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">It means that borrowers seeking rate relief should be on the lookout for a competitive rate. <\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Rate tracking from Canstar shows, while some banks are now hiking fixed rates, the lowest fixed rate remains steady at 4.64 per cent, while the lowest variable rate is 4.99 per cent.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post- wp-image-1084409\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1084409\" data-capiid=\"63b731154d3313f5f61350bc6cc2a7c0\" width=\"792\" height=\"325\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 792 325&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"Supplied Real Estate Source: Canstar.com.au.\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Term deposit rates continue to rise on the back of changing forecasts<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Term deposit rates, often a window into the predicted future of the cash rate, have continued to rise on the back of growing consensus we could already be at the bottom of the cycle. <\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Data tracking by Canstar.com.au shows 34 banks increased at least one term deposit rate in the month of November, up from just six in July of this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cVariable borrowers staring down the barrel of no more cash rate cuts should know they can still take matters into their own hands, whether that\u2019s refinancing to a more competitive lender or haggling with their existing bank,\u201d Ms Tindall said.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post- wp-image-1084410\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1084410\" data-capiid=\"775bd7bb0403115b4bfd9890227a40fe\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"SMARTdaily cover photo: RateCity's Sally Tindall\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1084410\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Canstar data insights director, Sally Tindall. Picture: Tim Hunter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cFor those savers looking to lock in a term deposit rate, make sure you shop around to find a competitive deal but also know rates could potentially rise even higher in the months ahead, although there\u2019s certainly no guarantee of this.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cLaddering can be one way to keep your options open, locking in smaller pots of money at different times. While the strategy isn\u2019t for everyone, it can potentially provide savers with greater flexibility and the ability to capitalise on more competitive rates down the track, should they materialise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cAt the end of the day, if you\u2019re not sure what approach to take, particularly when the future of the cash rate is so highly uncertain, seek out some financial advice and do your research. This will help you make an informed decision that\u2019s a good fit for your own financial situation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The RBA will be \u201cThe Grinch that Stole Christmas\u201d this year<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Aussie finance experts have also weighed in on future cash rate moves in this month\u2019s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">All 35 panellists surveyed expect the RBA to hold the cash rate on Tuesday, keeping it at 3.60 per cent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Almost all experts (33\/35) said the RBA should hold the cash rate next week, while just 6 per cent (2\/35) believe the Bank should deliver a final hike to close out 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said Australia\u2019s economists are sending a clear message: don\u2019t expect rate relief anytime soon.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cA hold is still a better outcome than an end-of-year hike, which was being suggested by some analysts \u2013 and would have added extra pressure to already stretched household budgets,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cWith inflation starting to get away from the RBA, the board appears committed to steady rates for now. <\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cAny festive rate cuts are firmly off the table, and borrowers will need to prepare for a cautious start to 2026 rather than a sudden reprieve.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post- wp-image-1084411\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1084411\" data-capiid=\"25d2316d6b615ee303bba19cedb61568\" width=\"627\" height=\"517\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 627 517&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"Supplied Real Estate Source: Finder\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">As for what\u2019s in store for the next 12 months, economists appear to be evenly split.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Half of experts who weighed in believe rates have hit the bottom of this easing cycle, while the other half said there was still room for rates to fall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">There is also uncertainty over October\u2019s CPI reading of 3.8 per cent, and whether this will impact the likelihood of a rate hike in the next six months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">More than a third of experts said October\u2019s inflation data had \u201cdefinitely\u201d raised the likelihood of a rate hike within the next six months, while 34 per cent of experts surveyed saw it having little impact.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">A further 28 per cent believe the CPI increased the chance of a hike by as much as 50 per cent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"RBA Governor Michele Bullock is expected to annoucne a rates hold in December. Picture: NewsWire \/ Nikki Short&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":173358,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[114,268,85,46,266,267],"class_list":{"0":"post-173357","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-personal-finance","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-finance","10":"tag-il","11":"tag-israel","12":"tag-personal-finance","13":"tag-personalfinance"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=173357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173357\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/173358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=173357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=173357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=173357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}