BEIRUT \u2014 One year after Lebanon and Israel signed a ceasefire agreement to end hostilities that had spilled over from Gaza, the Lebanese government is walking a tightrope between disarming Hezbollah and containing local resentment over continued Israeli strikes aimed at increasing pressure on the group, according to officials and analysts.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe agreement is vague and open to interpretation,\u201d said Ali Rikz, Beirut-based security and political analyst, referring to the Nov. 27, 2024, ceasefire deal. \u201cEach side is reading it in its own favor.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to the pact, Lebanese state authorities would be the only actors authorized to carry weapons, requiring the disarmament of non-state factions in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, starting from south of the Litani River, with government security forces deploying to positions across the area.<\/p>\n
In return, Israel agreed to halt any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military or other state targets, by land, air or sea. The deal also called for a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces, within two months, behind the so-called Blue Line, vacating areas currently occupied inside Lebanese territory.<\/p>\n
At the same time, under President Joseph Aoun, the new Lebanese government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam publicly committed for the first time to bringing the monopoly of arms under state control.<\/p>\n
Progress has been slow, as the process of disarming the Iran-backed group and political party Hezbollah presents a complex challenge, according to Dina Arakji, UAE-based analyst at Control Risks and non-resident fellow at Middle East Institute.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn the south of the Litani, Hezbollah has been fully cooperative,\u201d said Mounir Shehade, a retired brigadier general of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the government\u2019s designated coordinator for the United Nations interim force for south Lebanon, UNIFIL, established in 1978.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Lebanese Army has destroyed the arsenal and weapons including Katyusha rockets, Kornet missiles, drones, artillery, Burkan rockets and individual weapons,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
All told, the disarmament south of the river, in UNIFIL\u2019s operation area, is considered completed, sources told Defense News.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe helped the LAF to redeploy to nearly 130 permanent positions and discovered more than 360 illegal weapons caches and other infrastructure,\u201d said UNIFIL spokesperson Kandice Ardiel.<\/p>\n
Over the past year, Israel has continued its attacks on Lebanon, conducting near-daily strikes in areas both south and north of the Litani River, including the southern suburbs of Beirut. Israel says that it is adhering to the ceasefire terms and targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and fighters to prevent the group from rebuilding or rearming.<\/p>\n
That assessment appears to be at odds what UN troops are seeing, as least as it pertains to the south.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have not observed any new illegal infrastructure or rebuilding of capabilities within our area of operations in south Lebanon,\u201d Ardiel said<\/p>\n
South of Litani River, UNIFIL peacekeepers operate under challenging conditions. \u201cThe presence of Israeli soldiers in Lebanese territory prevents our full freedom of movement, and the full re-deployment of the Lebanese army,\u201d, Ardiel said.<\/p>\n
On the first anniversary of the cease-fire agreement, UNIFIL reported in a statement that more than 10,000 air and ground violations had occurred over the past twelve months. \u201cWe have also continued to monitor and report impartially on what is happening in the south, despite challenges,\u201d Ardiel noted.<\/p>\n
However, the disarmament of south Lebanon has had no bearing on full disarmament of the group.<\/p>\n
\u201cHezbollah still retains weapons, including drones and missiles, in the north of the Litani, the Beqaa Valley and in other regions,\u201d said retired Lebanese Maj. Gen. Hicham Jaber.<\/p>\n
Rikz argued that, in Hezbollah\u2019s view, weapons north of Litani River are not part of the ceasefire agreement, making the disarmament process there a matter of Lebanon\u2019s internal politicking.<\/p>\n
Moreover, other factors add to the complexity of the issue, including the Iran-Hezbollah special relationship and the broad support from the long-marginalized Shia community to the group.<\/p>\n
According to a source within Hezbollah, any discussion on the future of the group\u2019s weapons remains contingent on Israel\u2019s full withdrawal from Lebanese territory, an end of the purported ceasefire violations, and guarantees on national security.<\/p>\n
\u201cAny future transition must take place within a framework that strengthens the state\u2019s role, rather than leaving it exposed to threats,\u201d the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the affiliation with the group.<\/p>\n
In essence, according to Arakji, the situation amounts to a catch-22 that could escalate at any time: Israel interprets the agreement as allowing it to conduct strikes against Hezbollah-linked sites and other militant infrastructure deemed a threat while demanding Hezbollah\u2019s complete disarmament. At the same time, the ongoing Israeli military actions in Lebanon are used by Hezbollah to justify the goal of retaining weapons, while the LAF lacks capacities and remains heavily reliant on foreign security assistance, particularly from the United States.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn this situation, the Lebanese state emerges as the weaker actor,\u201d noted Rikz.<\/p>\n
Some analysts here hope that the U.S. government can help mediate.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe only available solution is for the U.S. to pressure Israel to withdraw from occupied territories and stop its escalation. If Lebanon remains unable to resolve the issue of the resistance weapons, there is a real possibility that the war could return,\u201d former LAF general Shehade said.<\/p>\n
Agnese Stracquadanio is a Middle East correspondent for Defense News. She has a background in writing and photojournalism, holds a master’s degree in international relations, and previously worked for Reuters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"BEIRUT \u2014 One year after Lebanon and Israel signed a ceasefire agreement to end hostilities that had spilled…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":173972,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[8872,8873,25637,8866,42,86,46,88,43,40,38,41,39,66160,4497],"class_list":{"0":"post-173971","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-headlines","8":"tag-circulated-defense-news","9":"tag-defense-news","10":"tag-disarmament","11":"tag-dn-dnr","12":"tag-headlines","13":"tag-hezbollah","14":"tag-israel","15":"tag-lebanon","16":"tag-news","17":"tag-top-news","18":"tag-top-stories","19":"tag-topnews","20":"tag-topstories","21":"tag-unifil","22":"tag-united-nations"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=173971"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173971\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/173972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=173971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=173971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=173971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}