On the occasion of the EUCO, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has shared with Decode39 comments from three of its experts \u2013 Jana Kobzova, Jim O\u2019Brien and Nicu Popescu \u2013 warning about the risks of an imposed peace, the unresolved issue of Russian assets, and Europe\u2019s ability to act as a strategic actor.<\/p>\n
As European leaders are meeting (on Thursday and Friday) to discuss Ukraine\u2019s financial needs for the coming years, credible security guarantees and diplomatic efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace. In this context, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has shared with Decode39 a set of comments from some of its experts.<\/p>\n
What they\u2019re saying:<\/p>\n
\u2028Jana Kobzova<\/a>, Senior Policy Fellow and co-director of ECFR\u2019s European Security Programme: Ahead of the summit, Putin counts on Trump\u2019s pressure, Ukraine\u2019s fatigue and European divisions to deliver his dream: a weakened Ukraine, an irrelevant Europe and a divided west.<\/p>\n Ukraine and the Europeans can prove him wrong, but time is short, irrespective of the current round of talks. Because under any scenario, a deal on using the immobilized assets (or other means of financing) is an investment into Ukraine\u2019s and Europe\u2019s own security. Jim O\u2019Brien<\/a>, Distinguished Visiting Fellow: Ukraine needs a promise this week of enough funding for two years, probably about $140B. That will make a ceasefire more likely because Russia will know that it cannot wait for Ukraine\u2019s collapse. Only Europe can make this promise.<\/p>\n If Europe doesn\u2019t use the immobilized Russian sovereign assets Donald Trump will. The US-Russian plan already puts the Russian assets in play, under US and Russian direction. The only thing in question is whether Europe will be at the table.<\/p>\n Nicu Popescu<\/a>, Distinguished Policy Fellow and co-director of ECFR\u2019s European Security Programme: There is no democracy, economic development, well-being, social protection or modernization without peace, security and capacity to defend our societies from war.<\/p>\n Calling the next European Council meeting a \u2018make-or-break moment\u2019 has become something a platitude. But the next days, weeks and months will likely determine the future of peace on the European continent for decades ahead. The outlook for future peace in Europe has been darkening.
\nIf the guns fall silent, these funds will be crucial for restarting the war-torn economy and addressing the country\u2019s post-conflict challenges. If Putin rejects a deal and grinds on with his invasion, the cash will help underpin Ukraine\u2019s self-defence.
\nWhat is at stake is far more than a decision on $140B; it\u2019s about whether the Europeans can shape the security environment on their own continent to their own interests\u2014or not.<\/p>\n
\nThe spectrum of a fake peace imposed on Ukraine is setting the stage for future wars in Europe. The capacity of European states to stay united but also find financial solutions to sustain Ukraine\u2019s defence against military threats is at stake at the next European Council.<\/p>\n