2026\u20132027 outlook: growth below potential<\/p>\n
For 2026\u20132027, the MPC expects Thailand\u2019s economy to grow below its potential, with GDP projected to expand by 1.5% and 2.3%, respectively.<\/p>\n
The main drag is a slowdown in private consumption in line with income trends, with middle- to high-income groups becoming more cautious about spending on non-essential goods.<\/p>\n
Exports face US tariff pressure despite electronics strength<\/p>\n
The MPC said exports remain under pressure from US tariff measures, although electronics exports continue to expand, supported by demand linked to data centres.<\/p>\n
Structural constraints deepen the cyclical downturn<\/p>\n
The committee assessed that Thailand is facing a more prolonged cyclical downswing alongside structural constraints, increasing economic risks in a meaningful way.<\/p>\n
Baht appreciation hits exporters and tourism income<\/p>\n
A key concern was the appreciation of the baht. Since the start of 2025, the baht has strengthened by around 8% against the US dollar, directly undermining exporters\u2019 price competitiveness\u2014especially in agriculture, processed agricultural products and textiles\u2014and reducing tourism earnings when converted into baht.<\/p>\n
Gold-trader FX activity linked to baht volatility<\/p>\n
On the sources of currency volatility, the MPC found that forward foreign-exchange transactions by gold traders accounted for as much as 20% at certain times.<\/p>\n
The Bank of Thailand has instructed financial institutions to tighten scrutiny of evidence of physical gold trading and is preparing to revise rules requiring large gold traders to report transaction data to improve monitoring.<\/p>\n
Domestic demand weakens as debt and uncertainty bite<\/p>\n
Domestic demand is weakening, with private consumption squeezed by slow income recovery and still-high household debt.<\/p>\n
Private investment is also under pressure from low growth prospects and rising uncertainty. Flooding and tensions along the Thailand\u2013Cambodia border have further weighed on confidence in both consumption and investment.<\/p>\n
SMEs under strain as credit contracts<\/p>\n
Uneven growth remains a concern, with wealth concentrated among large businesses while SMEs and parts of the wider manufacturing sector remain fragile.<\/p>\n
Credit in the system continues to contract as financial institutions stay cautious about lending to higher-risk borrowers amid elevated levels of non-performing loans (NPLs).<\/p>\n
Targeted measures to begin in January 2026<\/p>\n
The MPC said monetary policy alone is not sufficient and must be complemented by targeted financial measures. Two key programmes are set to begin in January 2026:<\/p>\n
\n\tThe \u201cClose Debt Fast, Move Forward\u201d programme, aimed at addressing unsecured debts of less than 100,000 baht.
\n\tThe \u201cSMEs Credit Boost\u201d programme, a credit-guarantee mechanism to support entrepreneurs in targeted industries.
<\/p>\n
Low inflation and deflation risks remain on the radar<\/p>\n
Inflation remains below target, with headline inflation projected at -0.1% in 2025, gradually rising to 1.0% in 2027. The main drivers are lower energy prices in line with global oil prices and government subsidy measures.<\/p>\n
While the MPC assessed overall deflation risks as low, it said the situation requires close monitoring amid weakening domestic purchasing power and growth that remains below potential.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"2026\u20132027 outlook: growth below potential For 2026\u20132027, the MPC expects Thailand\u2019s economy to grow below its potential, with…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":223306,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[14789,114,16770,184,122638,4422,85,46,121062,1348],"class_list":["post-223305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-bank-of-thailand","tag-business","tag-economic","tag-economy","tag-gdp-forecast","tag-growth","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-mpc","tag-thailand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=223305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223305\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/223306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=223305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=223305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=223305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}