Good morning. At least 648 people have been killed by Iran\u2019s security services during nationwide demonstrations, with more than 10,600 arrested. The unrest is widely seen as the most serious challenge to Iran\u2019s Islamic Republic in recent years.<\/p>\n
People took to the streets for reasons ranging from rising economic hardship to long-simmering anger over political repression and civil rights. Together, they represent a hardening of public opinion against the state.<\/p>\n
After a brutal government crackdown, Donald Trump has threatened US military intervention, and warned that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on trade<\/a> with the US.<\/p>\n But what sparked this latest wave of protests, and what might happen next? To discuss that and more, I spoke to Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi, a researcher of the international politics of the Middle East at St Andrews University. That\u2019s after the headlines.<\/p>\n Five big stories<\/p>\n Iran | Donald Trump is \u201cunafraid to use military force on Iran\u201d, the White House said<\/a> on Monday as the regime faced continued unrest across the country. The Iranian foreign minister claimed protests were \u201cunder total control\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n Neurodiversity | The NHS is overspending by \u00a3164m a year on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)<\/a> services, with an increasing amount going to unregulated private assessments that can be unreliable, a Guardian investigation has found.<\/p>\n Elon Musk | The UK media watchdog has opened a formal investigation<\/a> into Elon Musk\u2019s X over the use of the Grok AI tool to manipulate images of women and children by removing their clothes.<\/p>\n UK politics | Nadhim Zahawi was rejected for a peerage<\/a> by the Conservatives just weeks before he defected to Reform UK, Tory sources have told the Guardian. Zahawi was announced on Monday as Reform\u2019s newest recruit despite having claimed Nigel Farage made \u201coffensive and racist\u201d comments about him.<\/p>\n Sovereignty | Chinese officials have been pushing \u201clegal advice\u201d on European countries, saying their own border laws require them to ban entry to Taiwanese politicians<\/a>, according to more than half a dozen diplomats and officials familiar with the matter.<\/p>\n In depth: \u2018There is a deep well of discontent\u2019Iranian protesters demonstrate in Tehran on 10 January. Photograph: Social Media\/Zuma Press Wire\/Shutterstock<\/p>\n The initial protests broke out on 28 December. Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi tells me they were started by electronics vendors in the Tehran\u2019s bazaars, before quickly spreading across the country. The government initially struck a conciliatory note, acknowledging people\u2019s grievances and right to protest, but that quickly evaporated. Videos of security forces storming hospitals to beat doctors and patients spread rapidly, shocking and enraging the country.<\/p>\n And on Thursday, Iran went dark. Authorities shut down the internet and blocked international calls, cutting the country off from the outside world. The government has since threatened death sentences for protesters, whom they accuse of acting on behalf of Israel and the US.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is a deep well of discontent,\u201d Sadeghi-Boroujerdi says. \u201cIran\u2019s got a water crisis, which has been completely mismanaged. It\u2019s got horrendous levels of air pollution, to the point that elderly relatives of mine can\u2019t even go outside in Tehran. And there are electricity shortages and cuts because the infrastructure hasn\u2019t been adequately maintained.\u201d<\/p>\n These things are compounded by significant economic deterioration, he adds. Inflation is over 40%, with food inflation surpassing 70%. The cost of essential goods is also dramatically rising; for example, bread has seen an inflation rate of 110%, which disproportionately affects the poorest segments of the population, who rely on it as a dietary staple.<\/p>\n Sadeghi-Boroujerdi says, however, it would be wrong to suggest that these protests are down solely to economic reasons. \u201cThere is an economic dimension to this, but it is also a profoundly political one.\u201d<\/p>\n A long history of protest<\/p>\n There has been a long history of social movements and protests in Iran, particularly during the Islamic Republic, Sadeghi-Boroujerdi explains. The most famous before this was the women\u2019s rights protests, which bloomed in 2022 after the killing of the Kurdish-Iranian woman Mahsa Jina Amini<\/a>; and the Green movement of 2009<\/a>, which called for democratic reform following a disputed presidential election.<\/p>\n Sadeghi-Boroujerdi described the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom movement as not only centring the experience of women and the Kurdish community in Iran, but also offering a \u201cmore positive vision for a democratic, more egalitarian, less patriarchal society, addressing questions of ethnic oppression, which are longstanding in Iran as well\u201d.<\/p>\n The movement\u2019s demonstrations were brutally suppressed by the Islamic Republic. The UN estimated that 551 protesters were killed<\/a>, and thousands were arrested. Sadeghi-Boroujerdi tells me of the particularly disturbing use of metal pellets that were shot into the crowds, and blinded young women.<\/p>\n But the violent suppression didn\u2019t completely extinguish the movement, and the government was forced to concede significant ground on the question of mandatory veiling. \u201cThere are now remarkable scenes of women walking around cities without wearing their hijab,\u201d Sadeghi-Boroujerdi says. \u201cMandatory hijab is not completely off the agenda, but the movement made significant gains here and the government was forced to backtrack in a way which we\u2019d never seen previously.\u201d<\/p>\n A crumbling regime<\/p>\n Sadeghi-Boroujerdi argues the Islamic Republic is weaker now than at any point in its history, after a decade of compounding pressure. He traces the decline back to the time of \u201ccrippling sanctions\u201d on Iran\u2019s oil exports, financial assets and more, that were partially lifted during Barack Obama\u2019s presidency after the signing of a nuclear deal, but returned in 2018 when the Trump administration pulled out of the deal. Last September, the UK, France, and Germany (the \u201cE3\u201d) followed suit, triggering widespread UN sanctions against Iran<\/a> for the first time in a decade.<\/p>\n Over time, Sadeghi-Boroujerdi explains, sanctions have not just weakened the state, but \u201chollowed out Iranian society\u201d. That process has driven what he describes as a cycle of austerity, shrinking state provision and \u201ca form of authoritarian neoliberalism\u201d, while also entrenching a \u201ccorrupt, unaccountable oligarchy\u201d that thrives under sanctions.<\/p>\n \u201cThe results have been mass impoverishment, but not just of the rural poor. The middle class has also been hollowed out in Iran in very significant ways,\u201d he says. \u201cClose family members who were middle class and had a relatively decent life have been pushed into poverty.\u201d<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s regional strategy has also unravelled, says Sadeghi-Boroujerdi, pointing in particular to Tehran\u2019s intervention in Syria\u2019s civil war, to shore up the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad. This ultimately backfired. \u201cThe fall of the Assad regime marked a watershed moment,\u201d he says. \u201cIt defeated the regional policy that Iran had been pursuing since the mid-2000s to work with various allies in the region, including non-state actors such as Hezbollah, in order to have a degree of deterrence, but also advance its own goals in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n That collapse has left Iran dangerously exposed. \u201cIran was really just trying to do everything to avoid a regionalisation of the conflict after 7 October, simply because they knew that they can\u2019t actually confront Israel and the US in a conventional war.\u201d<\/p>\n But Assad\u2019s fall, the weakening of Hezbollah and the aftermath of the Gaza war emboldened the US and Israel, Sadeghi-Boroujerdi suggests, which culminated in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran last June, in which the US bombed Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n \u201cIran was seen as uniquely vulnerable,\u201d he says. \u201cInternally, the society is brittle, and regionally, it\u2019s severely weakened. It hasn\u2019t been so isolated since the revolution itself.\u201d<\/p>\n He continues: \u201cI would say it\u2019s now in an even worse state. In the context of the revolution, it could rely on mass mobilisation and esprit de corps from the people. But today, there is mass discontent and hatred of the regime.\u201d<\/p>\n A crisis of governance<\/p>\n Sadeghi-Boroujerdi is not surprised that protests have once again broken out in Iran. \u201cI thought it was inevitable,\u201d he says. \u201cThey are experiencing a crisis of governance.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump claimed on Sunday that Iran\u2019s leader had reached out to him and proposed negotiations. The US president has openly said he is considering \u201cvery strong\u201d military action<\/a> against Iran\u2019s ruling regime.<\/p>\n Sadeghi-Boroujerdi says it is unclear what will come from any such discussions with Trump. He points to the limited power of the president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who has been cast as a reformist and has struck a different rhetorical tone, but is \u201cextremely weak\u201d in practice and \u201cnot able to govern the country effectively\u201d. Ultimate authority still rests with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei<\/a>, particularly on foreign policy and the nuclear programme, where support for Hezbollah has long been a red line.<\/p>\n While Sadeghi-Boroujerdi isn\u2019t sure anything as brazen as the capture of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in Venezuela is possible in Iran he says \u201cthey could potentially assassinate leading regime figures like they did in the 12-day war in June\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cVenezuela is also instructive because it shows that even the Trump administration wasn\u2019t interested in massively destabilising the country and trying to impose opposition leader Maria Machado as the head of the new government.\u201d<\/p>\n There has been speculation in Persian-language political circles about a possible deal from within the system, with insiders willing to give Trump what he wants and sideline hardliners. That scenario is difficult, yet possible, he thinks, though there is little evidence it is happening.<\/p>\n What strikes him instead is the silence of Iran\u2019s political establishment. Former presidents, including Hassan Rouhani, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the reformist Mohammad Khatami, have stayed quiet, and none have backed the state\u2019s claim that the unrest is simply a foreign plot. \u201cA lot of the political elite are pretty unhappy with the situation,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Some protesters, in Iran and across the diaspora, have called for the return of the Shah. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the authoritarian monarch deposed in the 1979 Islamic revolution, died in 1980. He was first removed in the early 1950s, before returning after a US- and UK-backed coup that overthrew the democratically elected Mohammad Mosadegh and reversed the nationalisation of Iran\u2019s oil industry, only to ultimately be deposed in the 1979 Islamic revolution. But the former ruler\u2019s son, Reza Pahlavi, has increasingly appeared on international media, presenting himself as a potential alternative to the current regime.<\/p>\n Sadeghi-Boroujerdi argues that support for exiled figures such as Pahlavi is driven less by belief than by exhaustion. \u201cThere\u2019s sort of abject desperation in people,\u201d he says. He also points to years of foreign-funded Persian-language media promoting \u201ca revisionist history of the Pahlavi era\u201d, recast as a lost golden age and embraced by younger generations who never experienced it.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s by no means any consensus on this,\u201d he says, noting that some protesters left demonstrations after hearing pro-Shah slogans. Iran, he adds, remains \u201ca very politically diverse society\u201d, with long traditions of socialism, liberalism, nationalism and communism that persist, even if they are suppressed.<\/p>\n \u201cThese people don\u2019t just disappear,\u201d he says. \u201cThey exist. Their children come of age. They have their own politics.\u201d<\/p>\n What else we\u2019ve been reading1986 Santiago, Chile: Mujeres por la vida (Women for Life) protesters in Santiago, Chile, in 1986. Photograph: Kena Lorenzini\/National History Museum of Chile<\/p>\n Journalist Paulo Antonio Paranagu\u00e1 uses images from the turbulent continent of Latin America (such as Mujeres por la vida protesters in Chile, above) to weave a history of the region, covering colonisation, slavery and dictatorship. Andrei Netto speaks to him<\/a> about his latest work. Martin Belam, newsletters team<\/p>\n Mindy Meng Wang describes her father\u2019s three-day funeral in China \u2013 filled with paper effigies and ritualised crying \u2013 as \u201ccompletely shocking and disorienting\u201d. A decade later, she processes that intense experience<\/a> on stage in a widely acclaimed opera. Aamna<\/p>\n Author James Nestor has called breathing the missing pillar of health, pointing out how many people suffer from asthma, snoring, sleep apnoea and so on. Emine Saner interviews him<\/a>. Martin<\/p>\n After the Texas bathroom ban took effect in December, a transgender music teacher faced a terrifying choice: quit or continue using the men\u2019s bathroom and see his school hit with a six-figure fine<\/a>. He speaks movingly about why he was forced to quit. Aamna<\/p>\n Keza MacDonald describes<\/a> playing through the pain of brachial neuritis and tussling for 40 hours with 2025\u2019s most difficult video game \u2013 Hollow Knight: Silksong. Martin<\/p>\n SportThe USA\u2019s five-time Winter Olympian in skeleton, Katie Uhlaender, in 2022. Photograph: Daniel Mih\u0103ilescu\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Football | Liverpool beat a gutsy Barnsley side 4-1<\/a> in the FA Cup with Dominik Szoboszlai opening the scoring but letting the visitors back into the game with an error. Macclesfield\u2019s reward<\/a> for the greatest FA Cup upset is a home draw with another Premier League side, Brentford, in the fourth round.<\/p>\n Winter Olympics | The USA\u2019s five-time Winter Olympian in skeleton, Katie Uhlaender (pictured above), has accused Canada\u2019s team<\/a> of depriving her of a place at next month\u2019s Milan-Cortina Games by manipulating a qualifying event.<\/p>\n Football | Midfielder Lucas Paquet\u00e1 was asked not to play for West Ham in the FA Cup at the weekend, and wants a move away<\/a> from the relegation-threatened club to join Flamengo.<\/p>\n The front pages<\/p>\n \u201cADHD care costs soar as NHS turns to private sector\u201d is an exclusive in the Guardian. The Times has \u201cUK\u2019s troops set to swoop on Kremlin\u2019s shadow fleet\u201d. \u201cChina embassy\u2019s secret threat to City\u201d \u2013 the Telegraph got hold of unredacted plans and found a \u201chidden chamber\u201d near buried fibre-optic cables bearing London\u2019s financial secrets. The Financial Times splashes on \u201cFormer Fed chiefs attack \u2018emerging market-style\u2019 investigation of Powell\u201d.<\/p>\n The i paper goes with \u201cUK under-16s could be banned from social media within months\u201d. The Mail ropes the attorney general into its top story: \u201cFury over Labour payout to Hermer\u2019s Guant\u00e1namo client\u201d. The Express demands \u201cTell truth on \u2018fantasy\u2019 cost of net zero push\u201d. \u201cCrash! Gangs walloped\u201d is the Metro\u2019s way of greeting London\u2019s reduced homicide rate.<\/p>\n Today in FocusA demonstrator lights a cigarette with fire from a burning picture of Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, outside the Iranian embassy in London. Photograph: Toby Melville\/Reuters<\/p>\n Is this the end of the Iranian regime?<\/p>\n Protests have rocked Iran, a brutal crackdown is under way and Trump has threatened to intervene. Ellie Geranmayeh on a dangerous moment for the country\u2019s leaders<\/a><\/p>\n Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings Illustration: Ben Jennings\/The GuardianThe Upside<\/p>\n A bit of good news to remind you that the world\u2019s not all bad<\/p>\n Ellen Smith is studying horticulture in Melbourne. Photograph: Eugene Hyland\/The Guardian<\/p>\n