{"id":24920,"date":"2025-09-19T03:57:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T03:57:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/24920\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T03:57:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T03:57:08","slug":"new-data-shows-europe-to-u-s-fall-travel-plunges-up-to-12-5-expect-fares-to-be-slashed-to-fill-seats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/24920\/","title":{"rendered":"New Data Shows Europe to U.S. Fall Travel Plunges Up To 12.5% \u2014 Expect Fares To Be Slashed To Fill Seats"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\t\tNew Data Shows Europe to U.S. Fall Travel Plunges Up To 12.5% \u2014 Expect Fares To Be Slashed To Fill Seats<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t by Gary Leff<\/a> on September 18, 2025\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Airlines are a strong leading indicator of the economy, and international air travel a barometer for the global economy. There are troubling signs in new data.\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows a decline in European travel bookings to the U.S. this fall. Specifically, summer (June \u2013 August) bookings for fall (September \u2013 November) travel from Europe to the U.S. are down meaningfully year-over-year:<\/p>\n

Location\u00a0<\/p>\n

2024<\/p>\n

2025<\/p>\n

Change\u00a0<\/p>\n

France (CDG)<\/p>\n

137,498<\/p>\n

133,521<\/p>\n

-2.89%<\/p>\n

Italy (FCO, MXP)<\/p>\n

209,766<\/p>\n

193,904<\/p>\n

-7.56%<\/p>\n

Germany (FRA, BER, MUC)<\/p>\n

163,727<\/p>\n

143,199<\/p>\n

-12.54%<\/p>\n

UK (LHR, LTN, STN, LGW)<\/p>\n

304,021<\/p>\n

289,040<\/p>\n

-4.93%<\/p>\n

Spain (MAD, BCN)<\/p>\n

153,541<\/p>\n

139,699<\/p>\n

-9.02%<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The data shows third party bookings \u2013 travel agency itineraries, including online travel agencies \u2013 and doesn\u2019t include reservations made directly with airlines. We know that these bookings are down materially. It\u2019s not likely that they\u2019re offset by increased resevations direct with airlines. <\/p>\n

And we know that Delta Air Lines President Glen Hauenstein shared last week at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference that for this summer, Europe was that airline\u2019s worst-performing region of the world.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

In the second quarter Delta had reported that U.S. outbound travel had fallen, but the declining dollar was helping with Europe-originating demand. That no longer appears to hold, based on this Cirium data.<\/p>\n

All that said, there\u2019s a lot going on here. Some will want to latch onto trade tensions (Trump administration) or a slowing economy. And seem to be part of it, but likely not all of the story.<\/p>\n

The dollar actually did appreciate during the summer, likely mitigating European demand somewhat. Meanwhile, U.S. hotels remain expensive.
\nJust because advance bookings are soft doesn\u2019t mean that European arrivals in the U.S. will end up down. Airlines cut prices and run promotions and may still fill up cabins at prior year levels, albeit with lower yields. Global uncertainty may mean people are booking closer-in anyway.
\nAnd there\u2019s a clear effect of border, visa, and tariff moves on inbound traffic. ESTA prices double at the end of the month. News stories about harsh border treatment discourages some visitors, who appear to be booking elsewhere (e.g. Japan).\t<\/p>\n

I\u2019d expect to see some decline in the data as a result of Air France KLM, Lufthansa and British Airways moving further to NDC\/direct sales. Channel shift is going to have some effect and we don\u2019t know how much yet.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

United\u2019s Scott Kirby says<\/a> the U.S. economy is strong and travel demand came on \u2018like a light switch\u2019 two and a half months ago. But something is up in travel here from Europe.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not surprising to see the biggest change coming out of Germany given their economic situation and manufacturing slump. Italy\u2019s economy is soft as well. U.K. conditions have been better than Germany\u2019s, so a smaller drop makes sense. Meanwhile, Air France KLM is going to have a bit of a different year-over-year baseline given last year\u2019s Olympics.<\/p>\n

Ultimately I do expect to see some catchup. And the data isn\u2019t clean since it doesn\u2019t include direct bookings. But it\u2019s suggestive of overall economic weakening hastened by trade and border tensions, although that is not the only cause.<\/p>\n

\n\tMore From View from the Wing<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New Data Shows Europe to U.S. Fall Travel Plunges Up To 12.5% \u2014 Expect Fares To Be Slashed…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24921,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46],"class_list":["post-24920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-il","tag-israel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24920\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}