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The vast majority of mortgage repayments hang in the balance on variable rate loans.<\/p>\n
A major Aussie bank has issued a shock inflation call that could trigger a February rate hike and send mortgage repayments soaring \u2013 even as economists remain bitterly divided.<\/p>\n
Commonwealth Bank has broken ranks to tip inflation will land in the danger zone when the Australian Bureau of Statistics official data drops, predicting the critical quarterly trimmed mean inflation figure will hit 0.9 per cent.<\/p>\n
That is the precise trigger that banking rival ANZ has publicly stated would make a February rate hike \u201cmore probable\u201d.<\/p>\n
MORE: $217m space deal to launch sleepy Aussie town into orbit<\/a><\/p>\n Clive Palmer\u2019s $215m legacy grows as daughter breaks rank<\/a><\/p>\n Now ex-governor Philip Lowe (right) with former assistant governor (financial system) now RBA governor Michele Bullock (left) pictured after answering to Parliament pre-pandemic. Picture: Mark Graham\/Bloomberg via Getty Images.<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect the policy\u2011relevant quarterly trimmed mean CPI to have risen by 0.9 per cent\/qtr in Q4 2025,\u201d a CBA Economics statement said. \u201cWhile this represents a modest step down from the 1.0 per cent\/qtr increase in Q3 2025, it remains well above the pace consistent with the RBA achieving its inflation target.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cOn an annual basis, trimmed\u2011mean inflation is expected to lift to 3.3 per cent, from 3.0 per cent in Q3 2025\u201d with headline inflation jumping to 3.8 per cent annually in the December data \u2013 to sit above the consensus forecast of 3.6 per cent circulating among economists.<\/p>\n Both figures also sit well above the Reserve Bank\u2019s 2-3 per cent target range, putting immense pressure on Governor Michele Bullock to act.<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect the CPI print will confirm that underlying inflation pressures are strong, with this seeing the RBA hike the cash rate at its February meeting. However, this decision could be finely balanced,\u201d a CBA Economics statement said.<\/p>\n MORE: More expensive than Sydney: Qld rent hits record high<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n