We think we\u2019ll still have pretty good access to the U.S. market without tariffs<\/a>,\u201d Deloitte Canada chief economist Dawn Desjardins told Yahoo Finance Canada earlier this month. \u201cWe\u2019ve really assumed a bit of a status quo.\u201d<\/p>\nBMO senior economist Sal Guatieri has a similar view.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur critical assumption for 2026 is that the [CUSMA] review will extend beyond this year, keeping the U.S. in the agreement, and preserving the compliance exemption on most Canadian goods,\u201d he wrote in a research report. \u201cWe assume the status quo in 2026, albeit with the odd flare-up in tensions.”<\/p>\n
Oxford Economics predicts most U.S. tariffs on Canada will be removed by the third quarter of 2026 as CUSMA is renegotiated.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe anticipate 10 per cent targeted U.S. tariffs will remain for steel and aluminum products, protectionist levies that weren\u2019t in place prior to U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s second term,\u201d the economic advisory firm wrote in a report published on Jan. 14. \u201cThis means the prevailing 6.3 per cent U.S. effective tariff rate on Canadian goods will drop to around one per cent, and kick off a recovery in trade that helps support stronger economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, RBC chief economist Frances Donald warns against a short-sighted focus on the negotiations.<\/p>\n
\u201cRecall that CUSMA includes a separate option (not tied to scheduled renegotiations) for any country to opt out of the agreement with six months\u2019 notice,\u201d she wrote in a recent report.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrade uncertainty will persist over the course of 2026, but our focus will be on the long legs of this transitional moment, and perhaps a bit less on the headlines around the CUSMA extension itself.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"U.S. President Donald Trump reacts during a signing ceremony on his Board of Peace initiative at the Annual…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":262066,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[2845,114,184,85,12980,46,86581,49379],"class_list":{"0":"post-262065","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-bank-of-canada","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-il","12":"tag-interest-rate","13":"tag-israel","14":"tag-policy-rate","15":"tag-tiff-macklem"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=262065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262065\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/262066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=262065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=262065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=262065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}