For the first few days of the World Economic Forum in Davos, politicians, civil society leaders, and business executives waited in nervous anticipation of President Donald Trump\u2019s address to the conference\u2014and any potential signal that he might try to make good on his promise to annex Greenland.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s speech came and went, but it wasn\u2019t the most significant moment of the week-long confab. Instead, the biggest splash may have come the day before from the U.S.\u2019s northern ally turned rival Canada. In a speech<\/a> bound for the history books, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described a \u201crupture\u201d in the world order and called for middle powers like Canada to stand up to bullies. He described the emergence of new coalitions of the willing to address issues aligned with their interests and values\u2014rather than all nations following signals from the U.S. as they have been. \u201cWe\u2019re pursuing variable geometry, in other words,\u201d said Carney, \u201cdifferent coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests.\u201d<\/p>\n This reshaping will touch every aspect of the economy\u2014and importantly it will have profound effects for energy and climate.\u00a0<\/p>\n The most obvious impact is the divergent approach to energy technologies. In Davos, Trump Administration officials touted fossil fuels while panning renewables. \u201cEconomically, it\u2019s been a failure,\u201d Energy Secretary Chris Wright said of global investment in renewable energy in a fireside chat. That stance will come as no surprise to anyone who has even loosely followed Trump\u2019s approach to energy, but in Davos the contrast to the rest of the world\u2019s thinking was striking.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Ursula Von Der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, said the European Union would double down on nuclear and renewables to free the bloc from \u201cmanipulation\u201d by other countries\u2014a group which might now reasonably be interpreted to include the U.S. \u201cHomegrown, reliable, resilient, and cheaper energy will drive our economic growth and secure our independence,\u201d she told a plenary session.\u00a0<\/p>\n French President Emmanuel Macron said he would welcome more Chinese investment in key sectors\u2014presumably including renewable energy where the country is a key player. The week before Davos, Carney traveled to China and agreed to all but eliminate Canada\u2019s steep tariffs on Chinese EVs, opening his country to China\u2019s cheap and popular automobiles to the detriment of U.S. automakers.<\/p>\n The U.S., however, has allies in its push to entrench fossil fuels. The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia\u2019s state-owned oil company, touted<\/a> continued demand for oil as he made a case to leaders at Davos for the long-term future of his country\u2019s key export. (Though it is also investing in renewable energy.)\u00a0<\/p>\n Climate change wasn\u2019t exactly the main subject for top government officials this week, with pressing geopolitical concerns taking up most of the oxygen. But it\u2019s easy to see how Carney\u2019s coalition of the willing approach might unfold once leaders return from Davos and, one day, turn their attention to cutting global emissions. Indeed, before becoming Canada\u2019s prime minister, Carney had championed the idea of \u201ccarbon clubs,\u201d where countries would join together to reduce emissions\u2014with trade penalties for laggards outside the club. This year, the E.U.\u2019s border carbon adjustment mechanism\u2014which taxes emissions from some products at the border\u2014took effect. Other countries like Brazil are considering<\/a> related policies.\u00a0<\/p>\n The response to Trump\u2019s energy posturing from the executives gathered in Davos was mixed. Behind the scenes, many insisted that their sustainability work would continue regardless of the Trump Administration\u2014even as they avoid talking about it publicly. The long-term signal remains clear, they argue. But there\u2019s no question that at the very least this new global realignment increases the complexity of managing energy and climate work.\u00a0<\/p>\n When the dust settles on this moment of chaotic and rapid change, the international climate regime will look dramatically different with new alliances and international relationships. The U.S. won\u2019t necessarily be alone, but it may find that standing apart comes at a cost.\u00a0<\/p>\n To get this story in your inbox, subscribe to the TIME CO2 Leadership Report newsletter\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n