Israel\u2019s political scene has suffered a state of prolonged and deep restlessness in recent years, more than ever before. Regardless of the 7th October events and the exhausting war that followed \u2014 which left Israel fundamentally altered from the one we knew before \u2014 the country had already been on edge for years. Israel witnessed four general elections in four consecutive years, searching for a fragile stability that was never found.<\/p>\n
The first of these four general elections took place in 2019 and continued through 2022, mostly bringing the same face back to the prime minister\u2019s office \u2014 Benjamin Netanyahu \u2014 except for the 2021 election, which brought another right-wing leader, Naftali Bennett, to the leadership of Israel. It was his first term, when he formed a coalition with the centrist Yair Lapid\u2019s \u201cYesh Atid\u201d party. Now, 2026 is shaping up to be what may be the decisive and unprecedented election in the history of the state of Israel \u2014 one that will decide far more than just who becomes the next prime minister and what kind of Knesset the country will have.<\/p>\n
In a previous conversation I had with the Arab-Israeli Member of Knesset Aida Suleiman\u2013Touma a couple of months ago, she mentioned that Israel\u2019s 2026 elections are going to be a battle to decide full control of the conservative camp after years of intense political conflict between rival political camps. \u201cThe Israeli religious-nationalist front will do whatever it takes to maintain control over Israeli politics. I am even expecting violence to happen within the Jewish community in Israel amid the deepening polarisation in the state,\u201d MK Suleiman\u2013Touma said. \u201cI don\u2019t think that Netanyahu and the conservative camp will give away the government easily if they don\u2019t win the elections. The right wing is aware that they are facing a historic moment to keep power in the hands of the right wing without any partners from outside,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n
I also spoke to Member of Knesset Ofer Cassif, who expressed similar fears of right-wing violence against both Arab and Jewish voters in the elections. \u201cI\u2019m terrified of the next elections because we are going to see a significant amount of violence,\u201d Cassif said. \u201cThe police force is already controlled by the fascists of Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security. They will terrorise opposition voters and prevent them from going out to cast their votes,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Sami Abu Shehade the leader of the Tajamua party in the Arab community in Israel said in a recent interview with Al Jazeera they are looking forward to securing up to 15 seats in the next Knesset. The aim of scoring 15 seats came after the recent commitment among the Arab political parties in Israel to run under a joint platform. Abu Shehada told Al Jazeera that the main objective at this point is to do whatever it takes to prevent this current coalition he called \u201cfascist and criminal\u201d from winning the elections and forming the next government in Israel.<\/p>\n
The Israeli parliament, The Knesset, is made up of 120 seats and a coalition would need at least 61 seats to secure a majority and be able to form a government. A poll by the Israeli daily the Israeli daily newspaper, Maariv published Friday January 23rd showed the opposition in Israel is likely to secure 61 seats which means it can form a government with a slim majority while the Netanyahu led coalition is forecast to secure only 50 seats in the upcoming elections. \u201cThe right-wing has gotten stronger after October 7th, yes, but at the same time, there is a very strong and big opposition to this government\u201d said Hadash Member of Knesset Ofer Cassif. \u201cIf there are honest elections, there is no doubt that this coalition in the government is going to lose big time\u201d Cassif argued.<\/p>\n
Here is another question that all parties racing for the 2026 elections have to answer: what stance are they going to take, or maintain, on the Haredi community\u2019s demand to keep Yeshiva religious school students exempt from mandatory military service \u2014 a demand that is not only vital to the religious sector within the Israeli mosaic, but also to the secular public, if not even more so.<\/p>\n
This Monday, 26th January, the Haredi parties postponed a crucial vote on the state budget amid heightened tensions over the controversial Haredi conscription bill \u2014 a major point of disagreement between the ultra-religious parties in the coalition and the leadership of both the government and the army in Israel. This comes in a complex situation in which religious parties seek to keep their communities away from military service at a time when the Israeli army is in desperate need of more troops.<\/p>\n
The shadows and weight of the two years of war against Gaza and in the region since October 2023 are covering the skies of Israel in these elections and will continue to play a major role in the coming months leading up to \u2014 and following \u2014 the vote. Tensions are still escalating rapidly in the Gulf, where an American attack on Iran is expected at any time, with implications for Israel that remain unknown. If the situation in Iran drifts into a confrontation with the United States, a decisive card will have been played in the context of Israel\u2019s 2026 elections. Such a development is likely to boost the chances of Benjamin Netanyahu winning more votes, as a leader seen as more tested than any other in dealing with such security situations and in leading direct or indirect confrontations with Iran and Hezbollah, clearly better than other figures on Israel\u2019s current political scene.<\/p>\n
The main obstacle in determining the timing of the next elections in Israel at this stage is the passage of the state budget, which is being discussed intensely in the Knesset and must be voted on in its first and second readings before the end of March. Otherwise, the Knesset would be considered dissolved and a call for early elections would become mandatory \u2014 while this is not likely, it remains possible.<\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s 2026 elections will be the first elections after the unforgettable events of the past two years, and also the ultimate test of Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s political career, exactly thirty years after he first assumed office as prime minister of Israel in 1996. Much is at stake, not just in Israel, but across the broader Middle East.<\/p>\n
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Israel\u2019s political scene has suffered a state of prolonged and deep restlessness in recent years, more than ever…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":263913,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[85,46,43],"class_list":{"0":"post-263912","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-israel","8":"tag-il","9":"tag-israel","10":"tag-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=263912"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263912\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/263913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=263912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=263912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=263912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}