Trump to name his pick as Fed chair today<\/p>\n
The identity of the next person to run America\u2019s central bank \u2013 and face firm pressure from Donald Trump to cut interest rates \u2013 could be revealed today.<\/p>\n
President Trump told reporters last night that he would announce a successor to Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell on Friday morning<\/p>\n Trump hinted that it would be \u201csomebody that could have been there a few years ago … I think it\u2019s going to be a very good choice. I hope so.\u201d<\/p>\n A source later told Reuters that Trump had met with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh at the White House on Thursday.<\/p>\n Warsh<\/a>, who interviewed for the job in 2017<\/a>, is a critic of the Fed, which he says needs \u201cregime change\u201d to regain lost credibility.<\/p>\n Whoever Trump picks will needs to be confirmed by a Senate majority.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a002.39 EST<\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s decision to pick Kevin Warsh is \u201csomewhat of an unusual move for the President, who until now seemed intent on appointing a very dovish candidate that would almost certainly call for much lower interest rates,\u201d says Raffi Boyadjian, lead market analyst at Trading Point.<\/p>\n Boyadjian adds:<\/p>\n Warsh, who has a track record of being an inflation hawk during his five-year tenure as a governor, is probably the least obvious choice for Trump. But it\u2019s likely that Warsh\u2019s views have changed since he last served on the Board in 2011.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Warsh\u2019s biggest task as Fed chair will be to maintain confidence in its independence.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s continued attacks on current chair Jerome Powell (who he picked!) have worried investors, creating fears that a future Fed might cut rates for political, not monetary policy, reasons.<\/p>\n That creates uncertainty over the path of inflation, leading investors to demand higher rates for buying US debt.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Other candidates on the shortlist to be Federal Reserve<\/a> chair had been Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council director; Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, and Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n If you\u2019re just tuning in, here\u2019s a few facts about Kevin Warsh, Trump\u2019s pick to run the US central bank.<\/p>\n Investors think Warsh will be inclined to cut rates, and they expect him to rein in the Fed\u2019s balance sheet.<\/p>\n The dollar has risen today<\/a> since Warsh emerged as a front-runner overnight, as the markets anticipate he could be more hawkish than rival candidates<\/p>\n He\u2019s a critic of the Fed\u2019s post-financial crisis stimulus package, and quit the central bank in 2011 over this issue.<\/p>\n City consultancy Capital Economics have suggested <\/a>Warsh would be \u201ca relatively safe choice.\u201d<\/p>\n His nomination needs to be approved by the Senate<\/p>\n He\u2019s married to Jane Lauder, an heiress to the Est\u00e9e Lauder fortune, whose father Ronald \u2013 a Trump donor \u2013 suggested to the president that he acquires Greenland<\/a><\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a007.07 EST<\/p>\n Kevin Warsh to be nominated as next Fed chair<\/p>\n Newsflash: Donald Trump has decided to nominated Kevin Warsh as the next head of America\u2019s central bank, the Federal Reserve<\/a>.<\/p>\n In a post on Truth Social, the US president says he has \u201cno doubt\u201d that Warsh will be \u201cone of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best\u201d.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not a surprise, given the president\u2019s hints last night that he would choose \u201csomebody that could have been there a few years ago\u201d (Warsh lost out in 2017).<\/p>\n But as we\u2019ve been blogging this morning, while Warsh now favours lower interest rates he\u2019s seen as less likely to push for aggressive cuts than some other candidates.<\/p>\n Trump says:<\/p>\n I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Kevin currently serves as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, and Lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He is a Partner of Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne Family Office LLC. Kevin received his A.B. from Stanford University, and J.D. from Harvard Law School.<\/p>\n He has conducted extensive research in the field of Economics and Finance. Kevin issued an Independent Report to the Bank of England proposing reforms in the conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom. Parliament adopted the Report\u2019s recommendations.<\/p>\n Kevin Warsh became the youngest Fed Governor, ever, at 35, and served as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 until 2011, as the Federal Reserve\u2019s Representative to the Group of Twenty (G-20), and as the Board\u2019s Emissary to the Emerging and Advanced Economies in Asia. In addition, he was Administrative Governor, managing and overseeing the Board\u2019s operations, personnel, and financial performance.<\/p>\n Prior to his appointment to the Board, from 2002 until 2006, Kevin served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council. Previously, Kevin was a member of the Mergers & Acquisitions Department at Morgan Stanley & Co., in New York, serving as Vice President and Executive Director.<\/p>\n I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is \u201ccentral casting,\u201d and he will never let you down. Congratulations Kevin! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a007.02 EST<\/p>\n Should Kevin Warsh, as seems likely, get the Federal Reserve<\/a> chair nomination, investors may expect him to push to shrink the central bank\u2019s balance sheet.<\/p>\n That\u2019s because Warsh resigned from the Fed in 2011<\/a>, after questioning the expansion of its record monetary stimulus programme, quantitative easing (QE).<\/p>\n But Dario Perkins of City firm TS Lombard isn\u2019t convinced this will happen, telling clients today: <\/p>\n Is Warsh going to shrink the Fed\u2019s balance sheet? I\u2019ve heard Mr Anti QE talk about this many times, and his views are intellectually intractable. He says shrinking the balance sheet will reduce interest rates and \u201ccrowd in the private sector\u201d. But wasn\u2019t QE supposed to SUPRESS long-term rates?<\/p>\n The only way I can make sense of Warsh\u2019s thinking is that he is implicitly calling for a big fiscal contraction. Well GLWT, because this administration has shown no inclination to cut the deficit.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n The silver price is slumping alarmingly today, at the end of a month of astonishing gains.<\/p>\n Spot silver is curently down 13% at $101 an ounce, just a day after hitting a record high of $121.64. That still leaves it up 40% since the start of 2025.<\/p>\n Daniela Hathorn, senior analyst at Capital.com, says:<\/p>\n \u201cMarkets have seen a busy and volatile 24 hours, with price action increasingly resembling a classic correction environment rather than outright panic. Volatility has picked up across asset classes as investors head into the weekend with geopolitics firmly in focus, particularly amid growing expectations that the US could escalate its stance toward Iran. That backdrop has encouraged a degree of portfolio de-risking, reinforcing the risk-averse tone seen late in the week.<\/p>\n In commodities, the move has been most visible in precious metals. Gold and silver had been trading in an increasingly speculative environment, with gold up nearly 20% and silver more than 30% over the past ten days. Against that backdrop, the near-10% pullback in gold overnight, while sharp, looks consistent with a long-overdue correction after a period of uninterrupted upside. Importantly, this does not undermine the longer-term appeal of precious metals, which continue to benefit from central bank buying and their role as hedges against political and fiscal uncertainty. Rather, it reflects some concern that prices had moved too far, too fast, without a meaningful test of momentum.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Lithuania was the fastest growing member of the eurozone in the last quarter, according to this morning\u2019s data.<\/p>\n Lithuania\u2019s GDP rose by 1.7% in October-December, eurostat reports, followed by Spain and Portugal which both grew by 0.8%.<\/p>\n At the bottom of the growth league table was Ireland, whose GDP shrank by 0.6% in Q4 \u2013 making it the only member state that recorded a decrease compared to the previous quarter.<\/p>\n Estonia, whose GDP was unchanged, was the only other member not to grow in Q4.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n US stock index futures have dropped, as New York investors react to speculation that Donald Trump has chosen Kevin Warsh as his pick to be the next Federal Reserve<\/a> chair.<\/p>\n Reuters has the details:<\/p>\n At 04:51 am [EST], Dow E-minis were down 456 points, or 0.93%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 72.5 points, or 1.04% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 339.75 points, or 1.31%.<\/p>\n That reflects the idea that Warsh is less likely to launch aggressive monetary easing \u2013 despite his backing for lower interest rates \u2013 which would have weakened the dollar and fuelled inflation.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n The eurozone economy ended 2025 with \u201cdecent economic growth despite large uncertainty and economic tension,\u201d says Bert Colijn, ING\u2019s chief economist for the Netherlands.<\/p>\n Colijn explains:<\/p>\n GDP growth in the eurozone held steady at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q 2025. This was slightly better than expected, as sentiment data had been more downbeat towards the end of the year. But accelerating growth in Germany, Spain and Italy, to a lesser extent, made up for slow growth in France.<\/p>\n But the eurozone economy seems set to show accelerated growth over the coming quarters, and if the European Commission\u2019s economic sentiment indicator is anything to go by, we could already see this happening quite soon. January sentiment was buoyant and reached the highest level in three years, which was a broad-based improvement between countries and large sectors.<\/p>\n Also, industry seems to have started a bit of a production revival at the end of last year, which is expected to increase in strength as this year sees more defence investment and German infrastructure spending coming through.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Eurozone beats growth forecasts in Q4 2025<\/p>\n The eurozone economy kept growing at the end of last year, despite the impact of Donald Trump\u2019s trade wars.<\/p>\n Eurozone GDP increased by 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of 2025, matching its growth rate in the third quarter, and slightly higher than the 0.2% forecast by economists.<\/p>\n Eurostat also estimates that eurozone GDP increased by 1.5% during 2025,<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a005.08 EST<\/p>\n Mark Dowding, CIO of BlueBay Asset Management. says:<\/p>\n With Trump set to announce Kevin Warsh as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, the presumption is that he will seek to justify a dovish stance, advancing the notion that AI productivity gains will ensure inflation is held in check.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n The UK property market ended 2025 on a slightly weak note, new data shows.<\/p>\n The Bank of England has reported that in December, net mortgage approvals for house purchase fell by around 3,100 to 61,013, the lowest since June 2024.<\/p>\n Net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals remained unchanged when compared to November at \u00a34.6bn.<\/p>\n HMRC data shows that the number of UK residential transactions in December 2025 was \u201cmarginally lower\u201d than November at 100,440, which was 5% higher than December 2024.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a004.52 EST<\/p>\n Italy\u2019s economy matched Germany, by growing by 0.3% in the final quarter of last year.<\/p>\n Italian national statistics bureau ISTAT says:<\/p>\n The quarter on quarter change is the result of an increase of value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing, in industry and, less pronounced, in services.<\/p>\n From the demand side, there is a positive contribution of the domestic component (gross of change in inventories) and a negative contribution of the net export component.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Germany\u2019s economy has escaped stagnation.<\/p>\n Europe\u2019s largest economy expanded by 0.3% in October-December, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) has reported this morning. That follows no growth in July-September, and a 0.2% contraction in April-June.<\/p>\n Destatis says:<\/p>\n In particular, household and government final consumption expenditure increased. The German economy thus ended 2025 in positive territory after a turbulent year, particularly for foreign trade.<\/p>\n However, the German economy only grew by 0.3% in 2025 as a whole.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a004.32 EST<\/p>\n Kevin Warsh does have an interesting connection to Donald Trump too.<\/p>\n He\u2019s married to Jane Lauder, the businesswoman and billionaire heiress to the Est\u00e9e Lauder fortune.<\/p>\n Jane\u2019s father, Ronald Lauder, is the son of Est\u00e9e Lauder who founded the eponymous cosmetics company, and is also a long-time friend of Trump.<\/p>\n When Trump won the presidency in 2016, Ronald Lauder donated $100,000 to the Trump Victory fundraising committee.<\/p>\n Ronald Lauder is also reportedly the businessman who suggested to Trump that the US buy Greenland, planting a seed that rocked the Nato alliance this year.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Bitcoin is heading for its worst streak of monthly losses since 2018, Bloomberg has spotted.<\/p>\n Bitcoin has fallen 6% during January, putting it on course for a fourth straight month of losses.<\/p>\n It\u2019s down 2.2% today at $82,528, as a deepening risk-off mood grips the markets.<\/p>\n Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst UK at IG, says Iran attack fears are prompting a \u201crisk rout\u201d:<\/p>\n \u201cInvestors are bracing themselves for the strong likelihood that the weekend will see a US strike on Iran, now that all the pieces appear to be in place.<\/p>\n Reports suggest that it may not be like the last time, a single strike, and instead mark a sustained campaign to topple the Tehran regime. That opens the door to a host of other possible complications, not least an attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz.<\/p>\n Amidst this drama, Kevin Warsh\u2019s appointment pales by comparison, but at least it marks the end of this particular chapter of the Trump-Fed saga.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Spain’s economic growth speeds up<\/p>\n Back in the eurozone economy, growth has picked up in Spain.<\/p>\n The Spanish economy expanded 0.8% in the fourth quarter from the 0.6% increase in the previous three-month period, preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute showed on Friday.<\/p>\n That\u2019s faster than the 0.6% growth expected by economists.<\/p>\n