{"id":269165,"date":"2026-02-01T19:48:11","date_gmt":"2026-02-01T19:48:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/269165\/"},"modified":"2026-02-01T19:48:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-01T19:48:11","slug":"property-prices-expected-to-slow-as-forecast-rba-interest-rate-hike-dampens-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/269165\/","title":{"rendered":"Property prices expected to slow as forecast RBA interest rate hike dampens growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Property prices have continued to rise across the country at the start of 2026, supported by affordable houses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">However, the pace of growth is expected to slow as interest rate hikes put off prospective buyers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Cotality&#8217;s monthly Home Value Index increased 0.8 per cent nationally in January, up from 0.6 per cent in December, taking the national median value to $912,465.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The report found that growth in most cities was supported by homes at the lower end of the value spectrum.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Across the combined capitals, lower quartile house values were up 1.3 per cent in January, compared with a 0.3 per cent rise across the upper quartile.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;This trend of stronger growth conditions at lower price points is supported by intense competition for more affordable houses,&#8221; Cotality research director Tim Lawless said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;This is where first home buyers, investors and, progressively, mainstream demand is most concentrated.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Despite the most unaffordable conditions on record in many cities, along with a rebound in cost-of-living pressures and the prospect of a rate hike as early as this Tuesday, we are still seeing a broad-based rise in housing values.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A man in his 50s looking at the camera in a suit\" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/e8bd3c2176d35df267e41ff0a1316fd3.jpeg\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Tim Lawless says the biggest growth in property prices is occurring at the more affordable end of the market. (ABC News: Jessica Ross)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Sydney and Melbourne recorded a marginal rebound, rising 0.2 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively, following <a class=\"Link_link__kR0xA Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-01-02\/national-house-price-hit-speed-bump-property-market\/106185196\" data-component=\"Link\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/106185196\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">small falls of 0.1 per cent in each city in December.<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Home values in both markets were slightly down from their peaks, with Sydney 0.1 per cent below its peak in November 2025 and Melbourne 0.7 per cent below record highs in March 2022.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">However, the momentum across the mid-sized capitals continued into the new year, with Perth (+2 per cent) leading the gains, followed by Brisbane (+1.6 per cent) and Adelaide (+1.2 per cent).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Sydney was still the most expensive city to buy in, with a median home price of $1,290,537.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">According to Cotality, the number of homes advertised for sale is down 19 per cent compared to the same time last year, and 25 per cent below the five-year average.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;The ongoing capital gains reflect persistently low inventory in the face of above-average housing demand, however we are likely to see demand-side pressures gradually ease in 2026,&#8221; Mr Lawless said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Affordability and serviceability constraints are likely to naturally dampen demand, but also renewed cost-of-living pressures and a strong chance that interest rates will rise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;There is also slowing population growth to consider.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A drone shot of Sylvania Waters, a harbourside suburb with expensive homes, with Sydney Harbour stretching into the distance.\" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/3af1ab3beea78f837571367e72c7a6c5.jpeg\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">The median home price in Sydney was $1,290,537 in late January. (<a class=\"Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2 Link_underlineOnHover__Wg_BQ\" href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/license\" data-component=\"Link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Unsplash:<\/a> <a class=\"Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2 Link_underlineOnHover__Wg_BQ\" href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/photos\/a-city-next-to-a-body-of-water-8qHFxY9XGrU\" data-component=\"Link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Martin David<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>The interest rate factor<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">According to Cotality, property prices grew 8.6 per cent last year, with market sentiment boosted by the Reserve Bank&#8217;s three interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">However, <a class=\"Link_link__kR0xA Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-01-28\/inflation-ahead-of-rba-rate-decision-december-quarter-cpi\/106277748\" data-component=\"Link\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/106277748\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">hotter-than-expected inflation in the 12 months to December 2025<\/a> has put more pressure on the RBA to hike interest rates tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Money markets have priced in a 76-per-cent chance of a quarter of a percentage point rate rise when the RBA board concludes its first monetary policy meeting of the year at 2:30pm AEDT.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A portrait of a man in a business suit standing by a window, with hands in pockets.\" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/8c3fd4d84c207302ce5edbddd90c8ca4.jpeg\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Like many economists, Stephen Wu is tipping the RBA will lift the cash rate. (ABC News: Daniel Irvine)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">UBS economist Stephen Wu told the ABC that the investment bank expected two interest rate rises this year, with the first one delivered tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;We&#8217;ve seen stronger inflation data, a fall in the unemployment rate and signs of consumers rebounding quite strongly,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-01-29\/inflation-higher-than-expected-rba-now-likely-to-raise-cash-rate\/106278844\" data-component=\"FullBleedLink\" class=\"RelatedCard_link__rsgR9 FullBleedLink_root__lTw_U interactive_focusContext__yRhc_ interactive_defaults__AKxUU FullBleedLink_showVisited__g3Xvz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">What the inflation jump means for rates<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP RelatedCard_synopsis__cFwMW Typography_sizeMobile14__u7TGe Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">The Reserve Bank cut interest rates three times last year, betting inflation would moderate. But that hasn&#8217;t happened, and now a rate hike looks likely next month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Given those factors, the RBA won&#8217;t feel the need to wait for data, and they can decide tomorrow to deliver a rate hike to ensure that inflation is going to be able to return back to the mid-point of [2-3 per cent] inflation target.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;That would put a bit of a dampener on the expectations around home prices.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Mr Wu said he expected a moderate rise of 4\u20135 per cent in home prices this year, given interest rate hikes, ongoing affordability concerns and a gradual rise in unemployment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;We don&#8217;t expect to see home prices falling, just a slowing in the pace of growth,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Property prices have continued to rise across the country at the start of 2026, supported by affordable houses.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":269166,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[8329,140365,114,184,36969,52752,8331,49435,85,4486,46,140366,13666,25060,4861,140364],"class_list":{"0":"post-269165","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-apartments","9":"tag-australian-real-estate","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-home-owners","13":"tag-house-prices","14":"tag-housing","15":"tag-housing-policy","16":"tag-il","17":"tag-interest-rates","18":"tag-israel","19":"tag-land-values","20":"tag-mortgages","21":"tag-property-prices","22":"tag-real-estate","23":"tag-unit-prices"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=269165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269165\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/269166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=269165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=269165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=269165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}