Marcos\u00a0Mortari:\u00a0Russian diesel has made a strong comeback in Brazil at the start of 2026. But is this renewed dominance here to stay? And what trends should we expect going forward? I am Marcos\u00a0Mortari, from Argus Brazil Motor Fuels publication, and my guest today on the \u201cMarket Talks\u201d podcast is Amance Boutin, Business Development Manager at Argus,\u00a0who\u2019s\u00a0been following clean fuels markets in Brazil for many years. Amance, welcome to the podcast!\u00a0<\/p>\n
Amance Boutin:\u00a0Hi,\u00a0Marcos. Thank you for\u00a0having me.\u00a0<\/p>\n
MM:\u00a0You\u2019ve\u00a0closely followed development of Brazil\u2019s diesel market over the past years. One of the most striking moments is related to the growing presence of Russian diesel in Brazilian imports, following the start of the conflict with Ukraine in 2022, and the tightening sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and the UK on Moscow.\u00a0What\u2019s\u00a0your view on the market these days? And what can recent history teach us about what lies ahead?\u00a0<\/p>\n
AB:\u00a0OK, Marcos. So, what I’ve observed in the past eight years I’ve been following this market is that Brazilian importers basically always strive to find a balance between three factors when pondering the need to bring in volumes of diesel, usually to compensate for domestic production, which amounts to, give or take, 80pc of the Brazilian demand. The first\u00a0thing\u00a0has to do with prices. They tend to ask: which is the most competitive source? And how does it compare with the price offered by Petrobras today? Is it cheaper than\u00a0the domestic product\u00a0or more expensive? What can I expect in terms of prices and product supply in the coming weeks? So,\u00a0it’s\u00a0really a tactical and dynamic view with a short-term horizon, and usually\u00a0you’re\u00a0looking through a two-month window considering this point. Now the second point, which\u00a0actually I\u00a0already brought up, is the issue of supply warranty, which\u00a0somewhat kind\u00a0of balances the first issue of price that\u00a0are\u00a0brought up and it has more to do with the long-term vision and the company strategy.\u00a0So\u00a0a question would be: how much can I stretch my supply between one supplier and another? I can reduce my supply with\u00a0Petrobras\u00a0for instance. Now we know that Petrobras has the most expensive barrel of diesel in Brazil compared with import cargoes, but what about tomorrow? So Russian diesel today is much cheaper than Petrobras, or US Gulf Coast. But if\u00a0I’m\u00a0thinking over the long term,\u00a0maybe\u00a0it’s\u00a0better for me to, you know, try to secure and cultivate my commercial relationship with my supplier\u00a0in\u00a0the US Gulf Coast. Well, because they are,\u00a0all in all, my closest suppliers in geographic terms and\u00a0also\u00a0I know that they are better positioned on ensuring a continuous flow of products over the long run. Then the third point is the issue of the\u00a0risk induced by every region. But\u00a0I think that your vision\u00a0is more up to date than mine. Given that\u00a0you’re\u00a0constantly in conversation with traders, Marcos.\u00a0<\/p>\n
MM:\u00a0Russian flows to Brazil went through a tough winter in the final quarter of 2025, starting with scheduled maintenances at key refineries, a seasonal increase in Turkish demand, and followed by a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on the county\u2019s infrastructure. The escalation of the conflict prompted shutdowns in many Russian refineries, sharply reducing local output and curbing exports to countries such as Brazil. Since December 2025, however, production has picked up as several maintenance programs in Russia were completed, and offers to Brazil regained momentum. Discounts widened compared with cargoes from other origins, such as the US Gulf Coast, and importers once again turned their attention to Russia. Lately,\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0even heard reports of large Brazilian distributors reselling cargoes they had\u00a0purchased\u00a0from the US to take advantage of steeper discounts on Russian product.\u00a0<\/p>\n
AB:\u00a0Well, that is\u00a0very interesting, Marcos, to see how Russian barrels came back to the market.\u00a0Do you believe\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0back to the market conditions seen from 2023 through mid-2025?\u00a0And if so, how do you see the role\u00a0of\u00a0sanctioned cargoes will play in shaping the Brazilian market?\u00a0<\/p>\n
MM: Well, I would say the\u00a0continuation of this scenario will depend directly on the behavior of other key variables. These include production levels at Russian refineries, domestic demand, export volumes, price dynamics, and the stance taken by Moscow\u2019s major trading partners, such as\u00a0Turkey. The emergence of new sanctions, along with stricter enforcement of those restrictions already in place, is also expected to play a significant role in shaping the future of Russian diesel flows to Brazil. The progress of negotiations around a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be another critical factor.\u00a0At the moment, large fuel distributors, for compliance reasons, are\u00a0steering clear of\u00a0cargoes they believe may be linked to any type of sanction. They fear that an increase in sanctioned cargo flows \u2014 often handled by regional competitors or even some refiners \u2014 could distort the market and create competitive advantages for those able to access these supplies. By the way:\u00a0looking ahead, what do you see as the main drivers for Brazil\u2019s diesel market in 2026?\u00a0What\u2019s\u00a0on your radar for this year?\u00a0<\/p>\n
AB:\u00a0It’s\u00a0very interesting\u00a0looking.\u00a0We’ve\u00a0put the magnifying glass on the Brazilian market. Now if\u00a0we’re\u00a0looking at the market\u00a0as a whole on\u00a0a global level, I think that the conundrum\u00a0we’ve\u00a0seen developing in\u00a02025, it\u00a0will continue\u00a0and\u00a0maybe intensify.\u00a0We have,\u00a0you know,\u00a0on one hand, an exacerbated geopolitical\u00a0risk\u00a0and this tends to create strong day-to-day volatility and sudden price hikes. And on the other hand, we have the fundamentals, you know, the relationship between supply and demand, which eventually over the long\u00a0term\u00a0prevail\u00a0and they point to pressured prices. And\u00a0we’ve\u00a0seen during the turn of the year\u00a0that this geopolitical risk has increased in\u00a0a\u00a0worrying way. So now you know, looking at all these factors, this geopolitical risk, obviously the main geopolitical event that hit us home in Brazil, in the energy market is\u00a0Venezuela.\u00a0So,\u00a0although it does not have the short-term repercussions for us in the oil products market, the\u00a0capture\u00a0of Nicolas Maduro by the United States\u00a0does change the equation in the medium-long term. And there are a couple of outstanding questions to\u00a0be answered. So,\u00a0for instance,\u00a0will the\u00a0American majors accept this\u00a0challenge thrown at them by Donald Trump?\u00a0Will they direct their dollars in rebuilding the oil industry, which could take 5, 10,\u00a015 years considering the current scenario of energy\u00a0transitionby\u00a0China and less availability of cash in the US\u00a0to drill new wells in the current pricing scenario\u00a0\u2014 we have,\u00a0like,\u00a0below $60\/b\u00a0prices. But you know,\u00a0looking at\u00a0a\u00a0more macro level in terms of geopolitics, we have big\u00a0questions that arise in the global order such as the relationship between Europe and the United States, and even the existence of NATO, which is a pillar of the world order since the Second World War. In conclusion,\u00a0I think\u00a0we are\u00a0still having a lot of\u00a0noise\u00a0and this noise will\u00a0greatly affect\u00a0prices\u00a0on a daily basis. And,\u00a0you know, looking at the more supply\u00a0and demand\u00a0fundamentals picture, we have OPEC production growing at this scenario,\u00a0which clashes with a picture\u00a0of demand\u00a0that\u00a0no longer seems to find\u00a0a\u00a0growth\u00a0engine in Chinese oil consumption.\u00a0So\u00a0I think this\u00a0is going to be the two main drivers pointing down the big outlook for 2026,\u00a0in my view.\u00a0<\/p>\n
MM:\u00a0That’s\u00a0really interesting.\u00a0Thank you for sharing your insights with us on\u00a0\u201cMarket\u00a0Talks\u201d podcast. Special thanks to our listeners. See you next time!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Marcos\u00a0Mortari:\u00a0Russian diesel has made a strong comeback in Brazil at the start of 2026. But is this renewed…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47215,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[140690,114,140691,140692,85,46,140689],"class_list":["post-269900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-brazilian-market","tag-business","tag-diesel-imports","tag-diesel-market","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-russian-diesel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=269900"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269900\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=269900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=269900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=269900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}