{"id":278581,"date":"2026-02-07T07:09:49","date_gmt":"2026-02-07T07:09:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/278581\/"},"modified":"2026-02-07T07:09:49","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T07:09:49","slug":"israel-must-block-a-venezuela-style-outcome-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/278581\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel must block a Venezuela style outcome in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

As speculation of a US\u2013Iran<\/a> military confrontation intensifies, a disturbing parallel is emerging in diplomatic circles. Following the US operation in January that removed Nicolas Maduro from Caracas but left the regime\u2019s machinery intact under Delcy Rodr\u00edguez, Israel now faces a critical strategic choice. Is it willing to accept a \u201cVenezuelan Model\u201d in Tehran, where the Supreme Leader is removed but the Islamic Republic remains intact? Or will it leverage its influence to ensure a genuine transformation?<\/p>\n

For Iranians, the fear is palpable: that the West will settle for a cosmetic transition, eliminating Ayatollah\u00a0Ali Khamenei but saving the Islamic Republic\u2019s military-industrial complex. Such an outcome would be a disaster for the Iranian people and an existential failure for the State of Israel.<\/p>\n

Israel is no longer merely a regional stakeholder; it is a decisive actor in shaping what comes next. Unlike any other country, Israel is deeply involved not only in the operational dimension of a potential conflict but also in the behind-the-scenes discussions that will determine whether confrontation happens and leads to real change or yet another strategic dead end. That position gives Israel leverage, and with it, responsibility.<\/p>\n

Many Iranians fear the US is preparing to replicate its Venezuela<\/a> strategy: a deal in which Washington decapitates the leadership structure while allowing the \u201cdeep state\u201d to remain intact to avoid a power vacuum. In this scenario, a regime insider would be tasked with overseeing a cosmetic \u201ctransition,\u201d preserving the IRGC\u2019s command structure and its oppression machine under a new guise.<\/p>\n

Such a scenario stands in direct opposition to the undeniable demand of the Iranian people. An overwhelming majority have rallied behind Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi<\/a> as the leader of the opposition and the best-positioned figure to guide the transition. The widespread chants of \u201cLong live the Shah\u201d and \u201cThis is the final battle! Pahlavi will return\u201d are neither nostalgic nor marginal. They reflect a clear political preference expressed repeatedly, publicly, and at immense personal risk by people across Iran.<\/p>\n

\"Iran'sIran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting in Tehran, Iran January 3, 2026. (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader\/WANA (West Asia News Agency)\/Handout via REUTERS)<\/p>\n

Virtually every independent observer has noted the defining feature of the recent uprisings: leadership. Prince Reza Pahlavi has filled that role. His call for nationwide protests on January 8 and 9 led to some of the most geographically widespread and politically unified demonstrations in recent memory.<\/p>\n

These were not spontaneous outbursts; they were the result of years of organizational capacity building and trust between a leader and a population desperate for a credible alternative.<\/p>\n

If the Islamic Republic survives, even without Khamenei, the outcome would not be merely a political setback. It would be a devastating betrayal of a society that has paid an extraordinary price. Such an outcome would amount to the outright dismissal of the national will.<\/p>\n

For Israel<\/a>, this is not merely a political preference; it is a strategic necessity. There is no assurance that any post\u2013Khamenei government drawn from the regime\u2019s remnants would offer more than a fragile, tactical ceasefire. A \u201cDelcy Rodr\u00edguez option\u201d in Tehran would mean a figure that has the blood of tens of thousands of Iranians on his hands and a regime that continues to kill its citizens, arm proxies, and threaten Israel\u2019s borders, just with a more palatable face for Western diplomats.<\/p>\n

Pavlavi’s relationship with Israel<\/p>\n

By contrast, the anti-regime patriotic movement led by Prince Reza Pahlavi represents the most popular, well-organized, secular, and openly pro-Israel current in Iranian politics. His public and sustained relationship with Israel over the past several years has helped dismantle decades of enforced hostility and revive the historic friendship between the Iranian and Israeli peoples, something no other Iranian political figure has achieved so openly or credibly.<\/p>\n

In the transition framework developed under his supervision, Israel, alongside the US, is identified as a strategic ally of a future free Iran. The document lays the groundwork for the \u201cCyrus Accord\u201d: a vision for stable, peaceful, and strategic relations rooted in shared security, energy, and economic interests rather than temporary expediency.<\/p>\n

This is precisely why Israel must act decisively now. Preventing a repeat of the Venezuela compromise requires more than military readiness; it requires political clarity. Israel should ensure that its moral and strategic commitments align with the will of the Iranian people. That means sustained dialogue and close coordination to guarantee that Iran\u2019s transition is led by the figure its people have already chosen, not figures imposed to cement the status quo.<\/p>\n

Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Navid Mohebbi is an independent Iran expert living in Washington, DC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As speculation of a US\u2013Iran military confrontation intensifies, a disturbing parallel is emerging in diplomatic circles. Following the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":278582,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3760,16097,85,46,47,43,18414,76108,21454,18413],"class_list":{"0":"post-278581","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-israel","8":"tag-america","9":"tag-ayatollah-ali-khamenei","10":"tag-il","11":"tag-israel","12":"tag-middle-east","13":"tag-news","14":"tag-nicolas-maduro","15":"tag-peace-in-the-middle-east","16":"tag-reza-pahlavi","17":"tag-venezuela"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/278581","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=278581"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/278581\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/278582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=278581"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=278581"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=278581"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}