{"id":279298,"date":"2026-02-07T17:23:11","date_gmt":"2026-02-07T17:23:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/279298\/"},"modified":"2026-02-07T17:23:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T17:23:11","slug":"israeli-arabs-can-shift-political-power-in-next-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/279298\/","title":{"rendered":"Israeli Arabs can shift political power in next elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, on a Dutch podcast, I was asked whether the Palestinians would ever gain equal rights. I argued instead for separation, then realized the interviewer was referring to Israel\u2019s Arab citizens. I told him they have equal rights on paper but he insisted they\u2019re \u201cnot allowed to walk on certain streets.\u201d My objection was rebuffed with European politeness.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s how deeply entrenched is the image of Israel as non-egalitarian. The interviewer would have certainly struggled to comprehend the scene at Habima Square<\/a> last Saturday: thousands of Arab citizens, alongside Jews, demonstrating not for Gaza but for their own security.<\/p>\n

Shockingly, murders among Arabs<\/a> doubled immediately after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s government took office, with a record 250 killings recorded last year \u2013 80% of the national total. What Arabs are demanding, in essence, is that the Jewish state deploy its police more forcefully and effectively to protect Arab citizens from Arab criminals. Encouragingly, there\u2019s no sympathy in the sector for crime gangs (as, sadly, many Palestinians defend terrorists).<\/p>\n

And if you look closely, you\u2019ll see many foundational assumptions dissolving.<\/p>\n

When old political assumptions start cracking\"Thousands<\/p>\n

Since 1977, Israeli politics operated as two blocs: On one side stood the Center, Left, and Arab parties; on the other was the Likud, the far Right, and religious and haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties. Whichever reached 61 seats determined who\u2019d be prime minister \u2013 the leader either of Likud or the other bloc. Winners didn\u2019t always form coalitions exclusively with their bloc. But the bloc determined who would be prime minister.<\/p>\n

The Center-Left assumed that Israel\u2019s Arabs were in its pocket: even if they weren\u2019t formal coalition partners, they\u2019d provide passive support, like a loyal concubine unfit for marriage but not looking elsewhere. Without the Arabs, then-prime minister Yitzhak Rabin wouldn\u2019t have reached a position in 1992 where he could entice the religious party Shas to join his government; they gave him 61 \u2013 and never reached the Promised Land.<\/p>\n

This arrangement suited everyone, because Arabs, too, weren\u2019t eager to bear responsibility for the West Bank occupation and for operations against Palestinians. But it\u2019s beginning to falter.<\/p>\n

This is partly because Netanyahu has viciously delegitimized Arab politicians (understanding that without them, things get tough for his rivals) \u2013 and the opposition, fearing the loss of soft-right voters, went along. Now they constantly talk about achieving a majority without the Arabs. Newspapers and pollsters accelerate the process by no longer presenting charts with two blocs but with three: Right, Opposition, and Arabs.<\/p>\n

Changes are also taking place among the Arabs that could detach them from their traditional bloc. The reasons are varied. They\u2019re genuinely angry at opposition leaders who mainly project toward them disdain. In addition, Arab society tends toward religion and conservatism, which often find their home on the Right (for a similar reason, more Hispanics than before \u2013 though still a minority \u2013 recently voted Republican in the US).<\/p>\n

Perhaps the most interesting development relates to the Palestinian issue \u2013 but not in the way Jews tend to think. The old paradigm assumed that liberal Israel was more friendly toward Palestinians \u2013 less racist and more concerned about the injustices of the occupation. Although this was true, that camp, as a whole, has largely despaired of peace, especially after October 7. Like the population at large.<\/p>\n

If there\u2019s still a market for opposing Jewish settlements and seeking an agreement with the Palestinians, it\u2019s based on the demographic argument and the necessity of separation \u2013 not peace. The message to potential right-wing voters is: If you foolishly vote Right, you will saddle the Jewish state with too many Arabs by perpetuating our presence in the West Bank. (Indeed, Israel plus the West Bank would be almost 40% Arab \u2013 and with Gaza, majority Arab.) That fundamentally nationalist message \u2013 warning of a binational state \u2013 is correct. But it doesn\u2019t exactly sound pleasant to Arab ears.<\/p>\n

I once told an Israeli Arab interviewer that if I were an anti-Zionist Arab citizen of Israel, I would support the Right \u2013 to undermine the Jewish state. The interviewer smiled, because he understood what eludes many right-wing voters. Tragic-comic, this situation, I must say.<\/p>\n

So don\u2019t be too surprised if, in the end, an Arab party goes with the Right (or with a right-wing leader) because of some package of promises. The chances of this happening would already be good \u2013 were it not for the fact that in 2022, Netanyahu built such a dreadful coalition, which so blatantly abandoned the sector, that it presently seems implausible.<\/p>\n

THE WILY Netanyahu may still try to neutralize this with creative maneuvers. More likely, he\u2019ll do his best to disqualify Arab candidates and suppress turnout in the sector through the trickery at which he excels. Either way, count on this: if in a future scenario he needs Arab support and can get it, he won\u2019t hesitate and will have no shame. \u00a0On the Arab street, this would be met with skepticism and some sympathy as well \u2013 but not fatal rejection.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because Israeli Arabs are simply no longer a monolith. Yes, there are certainly still many who are hostile to the state, and many more who are disappointed and despairing, but it\u2019s far wiser to embrace them. I also know Arabs who genuinely identify with the Right on \u201csecurity\u201d grounds \u2013 they want a strong leader and a strong state. Yes: A growing sub-sector has emerged, especially in mixed cities, that is culturally quite \u201cIsraeli.\u201d<\/p>\n

The trend in Arab politics<\/a> is for the four main existing parties to reorganize as a \u201cJoint List\u201d for this year\u2019s election. The aim is to both maximize turnout and prevent wasted votes (because of Balad, nearly 3% of ballots were thrown away last time, and together with a similar situation in Meretz, this handed victory to Netanyahu). Such a list is expected to win 15 seats or more, and even if it splits after the election, some of its components will want to participate in the government. If it\u2019s formed by the opposition, support among Arabs would be overwhelming.<\/p>\n

That is the deeper meaning of Saturday\u2019s demonstration. Despite the horrific war in Gaza, a significant portion of the sector simply wants to be Israeli. What is missing, for now, is a hand extended from the other side. The Dutch podcaster would not find this stupidity surprising \u2013 it confirms his grim views on Israel. And all that is a great shame.<\/p>\n

It is a shame because the Jewish people know what it means to live as a minority, because Israel promised equality in the Declaration of Independence, and because a \u201clight unto the nations\u201d should first shine bright right here at home.<\/p>\n

The writer is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe\/Africa editor of the Associated Press, former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem, and the author of two books. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Last week, on a Dutch podcast, I was asked whether the Palestinians would ever gain equal rights. I…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":279299,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[41381,8686,49,35647,50,85,46,25914,43,2200,238],"class_list":{"0":"post-279298","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-israel","8":"tag-arab-sector","9":"tag-arab-israeli-conflict","10":"tag-benjamin-netanyahu","11":"tag-coalition","12":"tag-gaza","13":"tag-il","14":"tag-israel","15":"tag-israeli-arabs","16":"tag-news","17":"tag-palestinians","18":"tag-politics"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=279298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279298\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/279299"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=279298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=279298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=279298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}