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<\/p>\nJust days before his ouster by the United States, Venezuela\u2019s authoritarian leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro promised on national television that the country would move into 2026 by diversifying its economy away from a historic reliance on oil.<\/p>\n
Within 48 hours, after a dramatic U.S. strike on the South American nation, Mr. Maduro was out. And it became clear that Venezuela would instead be sticking with the commodity that is so central to national identity that locals often breezily joked that it was cheaper to fill their cars than purchase a bottle of water.<\/p>\n
Venezuela\u2019s economy has been in shambles for more than a decade, a situation exacerbated since the U.S. placed sanctions on the oil industry in 2019 to put pressure on the Maduro administration for political change. Now, with Mr. Maduro gone, the U.S. is positioning itself to create \u201ctremendous wealth,\u201d as U.S. President Donald Trump put it, for Americans, Venezuelans, and Big Oil.<\/p>\n
Why We Wrote This<\/p>\n
After more than a decade of economic crisis and authoritarian rule in Venezuela, President Donald Trump and Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodr\u00edguez are banking on oil for the success of their political futures. But that may not be enough for Venezuelans who want more than just economic relief.<\/p>\n
On Jan. 29, interim President Delcy Rodr\u00edguez, who replaced Mr. Maduro after his ouster, announced a broad reform of the hydrocarbons sector that could help facilitate foreign investment. With some U.S. sanctions lifted since the strike, and the U.S. pushing oil majors to invest billions into the Venezuelan energy sector, Venezuela\u2019s oil revenue is expected to grow in a way no one could have projected at the end of 2025.<\/p>\n
But, after more than a decade of economic misery and authoritarian rule, the government has a short runway to show Venezuelans that their quality of life will improve under Ms. Rodr\u00edguez. Experts see many steps \u2013 from democratic strengthening to prioritizing humanitarian relief inside Venezuela \u2013 that are needed for an oil-centered solution to the Venezuelan crisis to be successful.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe population wants a change in the status quo,\u201d says Giorgio Cunto Morales, a Venezuelan economist and lecturer at Andr\u00e9s Bello Catholic University in Caracas. Nondiscounted oil sales could affect wages, temper inflation, and reestablish public services like water and electricity, but it won\u2019t be a quick transition and likely won\u2019t be enough, he says.<\/p>\n
\u201cVenezuelans want improved living conditions, but not to make authoritarianism more tolerable,\u201d Mr. Cunto Morales says of ongoing restrictions on civil liberties and human rights. They want political change, too.<\/p>\n
\u201cFood is still expensive\u201d<\/p>\n
Venezuela for years struggled with triple digit inflation, making the cost of even basic products like toilet paper out of reach. Venezuela\u2019s gross domestic product has declined by more than 70% since 2013, when Mr. Maduro took over from his predecessor Hugo Ch\u00e1vez. That\u2019s the largest economic collapse in the Western Hemisphere for a country not at war.<\/p>\n
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Pro-government supporters cheer as some hold up new banknotes and patriot identification cards during a rally in Caracas, Venezuela, Aug. 21, 2018. The currency was part of President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro’s plan meant to confront runaway inflation and a plummeting economy.<\/p>\n
On Jan. 20, Ms. Rodr\u00edguez, who had been Mr. Maduro\u2019s vice president, said that the country had received $300 million in its first oil sales overseen by the U.S. She said that the cash would be moved into Venezuela\u2019s banking system to cover citizen wages and to help protect the population against inflation.<\/p>\n
Under U.S. oversight \u201cthe idea has been sold to citizens that we are going to move forward, because [the Venezuelan government] is not going to steal the money anymore, and that the U.S. will administer the funds from oil sales,\u201d says G.S., an educator in Caracas, who asked to be identified by his initials due to ongoing government repression.<\/p>\n
But, \u201cfood is still expensive,\u201d he says. That reality contradicts an overwhelming sentiment of hope that change is coming, G.S. says. \u201cThere are a lot of expectations. … We might be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel\u201d he says, but \u201cit\u2019s a matter of time and patience\u201d before economic recovery becomes a reality.<\/p>\n
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