Over the past few weeks, Israel has turned into one big version of that Chinese think tank. The entire country is consumed with one question: Will Trump attack Iran, or won\u2019t he?<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a fixed feature on the nightly newscasts. It\u2019s become the prime consideration in planning, or deciding whether to cancel, family vacations. In Tel Aviv, where talking about real estate is a constant, friends banter over whether they have a basement shelter, a reinforced room in their apartment \u2014 or contingency plans to abscond to relatives in the suburbs whose house is more accommodating during a potential regional war.<\/p>\n
This isn\u2019t the first time such talk has swept across Israel. Predicting whether or not there\u2019s going to be a war is something of a pastime. The difference here is that the question doesn\u2019t turn on our own government, or even on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Instead, the answer depends on the most powerful, and unpredictable, man in the world.<\/p>\n
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\t\t\t\tBy signing up, you agree to the terms<\/a><\/p>\n So while other things are going on in the news here \u2014 it is, after all, an election year in the aftermath of a war, with the prime minister on trial \u2014 the main story in Israel hinges on reading Donald Trump.<\/p>\n \t That\u2019s even more the case as Netanyahu heads to Washington, DC<\/a>, for a flash meeting with the US president, and as the American military builds up its forces in the Middle East and sends its envoys to negotiate with the Iranians in Oman.<\/p>\n Israelis already know what Netanyahu will say; he has communicated that he\u2019ll call for curbs on Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program and its support for proxy terror groups. The question is how Trump will react.<\/p>\n Will this be like their February 2025 meeting, in which Trump advocated the permanent removal of Gaza\u2019s population alongside a US takeover of the Strip<\/a>? Those things haven\u2019t happened, but they did signal that Trump was taking a resolutely pro-Israel position on the matter. And eight months later, a ceasefire came into effect that freed all of the hostages held in Gaza and formally installed Trump at the head of a body overseeing the territory.<\/p>\n Or will this be like the April 2025 meeting, in which Trump, in public, shot down the idea of reducing tariffs<\/a> on Israel, and surprised listeners by announcing that the US was entering negotiations<\/a> with Iran?<\/p>\n Or will it be like June, when Trump first pooh-poohed the possibility of conflict<\/a>, then ordered his military to attack Iranian nuclear facilities at the end of the 12-day Israel-Iran war?<\/p>\n In facing these questions, Israel is far from alone. The whole world, US allies and adversaries alike, is contending with a Trump administration that appears to be in thrall to the whims of its leader. He\u2019s had so many about-faces \u2014 on tariffs as well as his threats to annex Greenland<\/a> \u2014 that a new term has entered the political lexicon: TACO, short for Trump Always Chickens Out.<\/p>\n Except that he doesn\u2019t, always. He didn\u2019t \u201cchicken out\u201d when he captured the president of Venezuela in a nighttime raid last month. Nor did he do so when he bombed Iran last year.<\/p>\n \t But the constant uncertainty is fraying international relations. At the recent conference in Davos, where the world\u2019s political and business elite gathered, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a remarkable address<\/a> in which he said the world was enduring a \u201crupture\u201d in which \u201cAmerican hegemony\u201d can no longer be trusted to safeguard the public good.<\/p>\n \u201cWe know the old order is not coming back,\u201d he said. \u201cWe shouldn\u2019t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy, but we believe that from the fracture, we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just.\u201d<\/p>\n Is that true for Israel? Like Canada, Israel has recently announced steps to be more self-sufficient. Netanyahu declared last year<\/a>, controversially, that in the face of growing international hostility, the country must become a \u201csuper-Sparta,\u201d at least when it comes to arms production. He recently told the Economist that within a decade, he\u2019d like to wean Israel off of American military aid<\/a>, previously a bedrock of the country\u2019s defense strategy.<\/p>\n It would seem that those steps are a response to Israel\u2019s declining popularity in the US<\/a>. But at the same time, Netanyahu has thrown his lot in with Trump, far more than he did with former presidents Joe Biden or Barack Obama, both Democrats. And Netanyahu might say that the bet has paid off handsomely.<\/p>\n In Trump\u2019s first term, Israel got a US embassy in Jerusalem, American recognition of Israel\u2019s annexation of the Golan, and the Abraham Accords. So far in Trump\u2019s second term, the returns have been similarly lavish: All of the hostages are back in Israel, and American B-2 bombers struck Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz.<\/p>\n \t But that\u2019s come at a cost: Trump, not Israel, is calling the shots in Gaza, portending a future<\/a> in which Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and maybe nations adversarial to Israel like Turkey and Qatar, wield influence and control. On the future of the West Bank, Israel has also bowed to Trump, who has explicitly ruled out annexation<\/a> even though it\u2019s exactly what some senior members of Israel\u2019s government want.<\/p>\n Now, Israel appears to be deferring to Trump on what has long been Netanyahu\u2019s top priority: countering Iran. That could work to Israel\u2019s advantage, depending on the goals of a strike, given that American firepower can do a lot more than Israel\u2019s can.<\/p>\n But it also means that Israel\u2019s immediate future and, to an extent, its position in the region have been subcontracted to a US president who has embraced unpredictability. When it comes to Iran, will he or won\u2019t he? Will this be a case of TACO, or Maduro?<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Image-from-iOS-17-e1759169944533-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and US President Donald Trump hold a meeting in the White House, Washington, DC, September 29, 2025. (Avi Ohayon\/GPO)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AFP__20260120__93DU8QJ__v3__HighRes__TopshotSwitzerlandPoliticsEconomyDiplomacy-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tCanada\u2019s Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers a speech during the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2026. The World Economic Forum takes place in Davos from January 19 to January 23, 2026. (Fabrice COFFRINI \/ AFP)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AFP__20260209__96NM76U__v1__HighRes__IranIsraelDailylife-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tA giant billboard displaying a map of potential targets in Tesl Aviv along with a warning message reading, \u2018You start, we finish!\u2019 is seen at Palestine Square as traffic move through the area, in Tehran on February 9, 2026. (ATTA KENARE \/ AFP)<\/p>\n