US President Donald Trump publicly emphasized diplomacy with Iran following his February 11 meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But experts say the deeper dispute may center not on Iran\u2019s nuclear program, but on its expanding missile capabilities.<\/p>\n
After the meeting, Trump signaled that negotiations with Tehran should continue. Netanyahu, however, has pushed for Iran\u2019s missile program to be formally included in any agreement — something Tehran has repeatedly rejected.<\/p>\n
Speaking to RFE\/RL\u2019s Radio Farda, UK-based defense analyst Hossein Aryan argued that Israel\u2019s long-term strategic objective extends beyond the nuclear issue.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we look at this issue in a broad picture, Israel\u2019s goal is to drastically reduce Iran\u2019s defensive capabilities, both under the Islamic republic and even in the period after it,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
According to Aryan, Israel views Iran\u2019s missile arsenal as its most significant military asset and \u201cits only deterrent capability.\u201d<\/p>\n
While other regional states possess ballistic missiles, he said Israeli strategists see Iran\u2019s program as fundamentally different because it has become increasingly indigenous and self-sustaining.<\/p>\n
Israeli estimates suggest<\/a> that, if left unchecked, Iran could expand its arsenal to as many as 8,000 missiles by 2028. Such projections help explain Israeli concerns about future saturation attacks overwhelming missile defense systems.<\/p>\n \u201cThat is precisely why Netanyahu\u2019s focus is not currently on the nuclear program, because they believe that part is under control or not presently at a critical stage; his main focus is on stopping Iran\u2019s military and missile machine,\u201d Aryan said.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s nuclear program suffered a major setback after the United States joined Israel\u2019s aerial campaign against Iran in June 2025, targeting nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.<\/p>\n No Treaty Banning Missiles<\/p>\n The missile issue presents a major diplomatic obstacle. Tehran insists its conventional missile program is nonnegotiable, and Aryan noted that no binding international treaty has any outright prohibition on missile development.<\/p>\n Frameworks such as the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Hague Code of Conduct are voluntary arrangements rather than enforceable bans.<\/p>\n At the same time, Aryan said US military movements near Iran suggest contingency planning if negotiations fail. He characterized the deployments as part deterrence, part pressure tactic.<\/p>\n \u201cSome of this is media shaping, and part of it is brinkmanship — to push Iran toward diplomacy and extract maximum concessions,\u201d Aryan said. Still, he expressed doubt that such pressure would compel the Islamic republic to scale back or abandon its missile program.<\/p>\n ‘Deception Operation’<\/p>\n While Trump and Netanyahu share the goal of stopping a nuclear Iran, they differ on the breadth of a potential deal — at least publicly. Wary of a narrow nuclear agreement, Netanyahu traveled to Washington specifically to ensure missiles are a nonnegotiable part of any US proposal.<\/p>\n Some analysts urge caution in interpreting Trump\u2019s public optimism for diplomacy.<\/p>\n \u201cIn my view, Trump\u2019s statements do not necessarily indicate anything specific, and one cannot rely on them with certainty,\u201d said Mohammad Ghaedi, a lecturer at George Washington University.<\/p>\n He suggested that apparent differences between Washington and Israel over what constitutes an acceptable deal could be strategic messaging.<\/p>\n \u201cThese remarks may reflect differences between the United States and Israel, but they could also be considered a deception operation, meaning he speaks of gaps and disagreements while simultaneously preparing for a surprise attack,\u201d Ghaedi said.<\/p>\n Although the United States has bolstered its military presence in the region, Ghaedi assessed the likelihood of imminent strikes as relatively low.<\/p>\n Instead, he anticipates intensified sanctions and economic pressure. He pointed to remarks<\/a> by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where Bessent credited sanctions with weakening Iran\u2019s economy and fueling domestic unrest.<\/p>\n Still, Ghaedi said Trump, potentially influenced by regional actors such as Qatar and Turkey, might accept a temporary arrangement, even if Netanyahu insists that any agreement must be permanent and include limits on Iran\u2019s missile program.<\/p>\n Iran and the United States held talks earlier this month in Oman, and negotiations are expected to continue. But Tehran maintains that discussions can focus only on its nuclear program. On February 11, Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Iran\u2019s supreme leader, reiterated that \u201cthe missile issue is not in the negotiators\u2019 remit.\u201d<\/p>\n