The report analyzed what that population growth would mean for Israel\u2019s higher-education rate, its employment rate and its GDP (the short answer: Without far-reaching societal changes, they all decline).<\/p>\n
But beyond the granular data, the report pointed to a more fundamental shift: The rapid Haredi population growth, rising from 11 percent of Israelis a decade ago<\/a> to almost 25% in 2050, means that this country\u2019s citizens will one day open their eyes to a different kind of Israel.<\/p>\n \n\t\t\tGet The Times of Israel’s Daily Edition \t\t\t\tBy signing up, you agree to the terms<\/a><\/p>\n The question of what that Israel will look like became more urgent on Sunday. A harrowing riot in Bnei Brak<\/a> saw a mob of Haredi men chase a pair of female soldiers \u2014 who had to be rescued by police \u2014 and overturn a police car and torch a motorcycle.<\/p>\n Footage of the incident was shocking not only because of the violence on display, but because it laid bare an issue that Israel has been facing for decades and only recently started to confront in earnest: The Haredi population\u2019s current priorities are at odds with those of the rest of the country, and any reconciliation is likely to come only after considerable national strife.<\/p>\n \t \u00a0A festering issue<\/p>\n The Bnei Brak riot drew widespread condemnation, not only from politicians across the political spectrum but from Haredi leaders themselves, who called on their followers to stay away from protests<\/a> and decried the demonstrations as a \u201cdesecration of God\u2019s name.\u201d<\/p>\n Haredi rabbis and politicians have portrayed the rioters as an unrepresentative fringe. But the riot didn\u2019t create a new issue; it just exposed how dire an existing problem has become.<\/p>\n For decades, successive Israeli governments have largely avoided confronting the fact that Haredi society operates differently from the rest of the country\u2019s Jewish population, in terms of education, employment, government funding and military service. Over the past couple of years, pushed by the judiciary and amid growing public frustration over the unequal imposition of the mandatory draft, the government has been forced to address the blanket exemptions ultra-Orthodox men have long enjoyed from IDF conscription.<\/p>\n The effort has come as the army has been driven to the brink by the longest war in Israel\u2019s history, stretching resources and putting a heavy burden on reservists.<\/p>\n The draft legislation that resulted is, according to a vast array of critics, a capitulation to Haredi demands and unlikely to meaningfully ease the manpower shortage currently afflicting the army. But that hasn\u2019t prevented a string of raucous (and sometimes deadly<\/a>) Haredi protests, nor has it calmed leading rabbis\u2019 harsh rhetoric about the army<\/a>.<\/p>\n \t Now, in the wake of the Bnei Brak riot and in the lead-up to this year\u2019s election, opposition politicians are unveiling plans to integrate the growing Haredi population and end the special treatment they say the ultra-Orthodox receive from the government. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, the most credible challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, posted a five-point plan on social media covering Haredi army service, government funding, education and the rule of law.<\/p>\n But Gilad Malach, a research fellow at the IDI and the lead author of the recent report on Haredi population growth, isn\u2019t optimistic that such ideas will go over well. Haredi leaders will portray any government that tries to meaningfully change their community\u2019s way of life, he said, as a \u201cgovernment of destruction.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m worried that, in the end, in the political context, it will be an explosion,\u201d Malach said in an interview with The Times of Israel. \u201cI say it with pain.\u201d<\/p>\n He went on, \u201cIf, today, the most pro-Haredi coalition isn\u2019t able to reach an agreement on an enlistment law, it\u2019s clear to me that if there\u2019s a coalition that isn\u2019t pro-Haredi, there\u2019s no chance they\u2019ll reach an agreement with the Haredim on an outline for the law\u2026 If there\u2019s another law that is even tougher in Haredi eyes, they\u2019ll call it an \u2018enlistment decree,\u2019 and that will be an explosion.\u201d<\/p>\n \t Growing influence in the public square<\/p>\n Part of the underlying issue, according to Rabbi Yehoshua Pfeffer, who runs the Iyun Institute for Haredi Responsibility and works to support ultra-Orthodox soldiers in the IDF, is that Haredim have historically viewed themselves as a minority that didn\u2019t need to take responsibility for the Israeli national interest. That outlook has persisted even as Haredi numbers and political power have grown.<\/p>\n \u201cBeing the majority implies something [Haredim] cannot assume: full responsibility for the Jewish state,\u201d Pfeffer wrote in a JNS column<\/a> last year. \u201cAnd once Haredim accept responsibility for Israel as a whole, they cease, by definition, to be Haredim as we know them.\u201d<\/p>\n He added, \u201cDown the line, as Israel became the accepted political representative of the Jewish people, the argument for exclusive internal focus weakened. Yet to assume national responsibility would have meant stepping outside the isolationist framework that, until now, has served as both protection and identity.\u201d<\/p>\n \t By 2050, when nearly a quarter of the country (and an even higher share of its draft-age men) is ultra-Orthodox, that narrative may become harder to sustain. Twenty-five percent is, of course, not a majority; it would make Haredi numbers roughly akin to those of Arab Israelis, who have long charged that Israeli society marginalizes them, discriminates against them and, lately, has done too little to stem a violent crime wave afflicting their cities.<\/p>\n But in places where Haredim are making up an increasing share of the population, their growth has changed the public square. A recent article in The Marker, for example, described how the promenade in Tiberias now essentially shuts down on Shabbat, dealing a heavy blow to the city\u2019s tourism economy. Malach also cited fears of gender separation in academic settings as more Haredi students pursue degrees.<\/p>\n More broadly, Orthodox practice is being prioritized in government. A bill that advanced in the Knesset<\/a> in December, sponsored by non-Haredi coalition members, would criminalize interfering with Jewish religious practice in public spaces, including via minor bureaucratic obstacles.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s clear that in 25 years the political power of the Haredim will rise,\u201d Malach said. \u201cSo naturally, they\u2019ll also aspire to influence the public square, and in many aspects, aspects connected to observing Shabbat. I can\u2019t say exactly, but that\u2019s certainly their aspiration.\u201d<\/p>\n \t Can American Haredim serve as a model?<\/p>\n As Israel looks to deal with these questions, the US might serve as a model. The American ultra-Orthodox population, like the Israeli one, is growing. Haredim make up 11% of New York Jewry, according to a 2023 population survey, and are most of its Orthodox Jews, but Orthodox children (Haredi and not) comprise fully 64% of the Jewish community\u2019s kids<\/a>.<\/p>\n
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\n\t\tHaredim protest against military conscription in Jerusalem, January 6, 2026. (Sam Sokol\/Times of Israel)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/F260111CG302-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tUltra-Orthodox Jews protest against the drafting of Haredim, in Jerusalem, January 11, 2026. (Chaim Goldberg\/Flash90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/F260114YS30-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tMKs Moshe Gafni (R) and Yitzhak Goldknopf of UTJ attend a plenum session at the Knesset in Jerusalem, January 14, 2026 (Yonatan Sindel\/Flash90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/oded1122-\u05d2\u05dc\u05e2\u05d3-\u05de\u05dc\u05d0\u05da-300x480.jpg\")
\n\t\tGilad Malach, a research fellow in the Israel Democracy Institute\u2019s Ultra-Orthodox in Israel Program. (Courtesy of IDI)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/afp.com-20231012-PH-GTY-1731939595-Preview-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tIllustrative: A man walks as police patrol a neighborhood in Brooklyn with a large Orthodox Jewish community on October 12, 2023, in New York City. (Spencer Platt\/ Getty Images\/AFP)<\/p>\n
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