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In a presentation to xAI employees, Elon Musk described establishing a \u201cMoonbase Alpha\u201d that would build AI data center satellites and launch them using a mass driver. (credit: xAI)<\/p>\n
by Jeff Foust
Monday, February 16, 2026<\/p>\n
\nWhat has been the most surprising development in space in the last year? Perhaps it was the saga of Jared Isaacman\u2019s nomination to be NASA administrator. That was an unprecedented ordeal, with Isaacman\u2019s nomination suddenly withdrawn only for him to be renominated months later. But in the end, the result was what most expected a year ago: Isaacman leading the space agency.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cFor those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years,\u201d Musk wrote.<\/p>\n
\nPerhaps it was NASA\u2019s budget, with the White House proposing severe cuts to overall spending and even steeper cuts in areas like science and space technology, along with cancellations or early terminations of key elements of Artemis. But by the time the final fiscal year 2026 spending bill was enacted in January, NASA\u2019s 2026 budget was close to its 2025 budget, with few cancellations.\n<\/p>\n
\nArguably the biggest surprise in the last year is the one that has developed just in the last several weeks: SpaceX\u2019s sharp pivot to the Moon. A year ago, it seemed that Elon Musk, using his influence in the new Trump Administration, was shifting space policy from a return to the Moon towards human missions to Mars. That was evident in everything from Trump\u2019s mention of \u201claunching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars\u201d in his inaugural address to a budget proposal that included funding for new Mars exploration technology initiatives.\n<\/p>\n
\nNow, though, it\u2019s SpaceX that\u2019s changing course. The administration has made clear its near-term focus in human space exploration is the Moon, returning astronauts to the lunar surface before China can land its first taikonauts there. A White House executive order in December, which effectively serves as the national space policy, calls for a human landing on the Moon by 2028 and beginning work on a permanent outpost there by 2030. Mars is only mentioned in passing as a goal for the indefinite future.\n<\/p>\n
\nSpaceX, already under pressure to accelerate work on the lunar lander version of Starship for NASA\u2019s Human Landing System program (see \u201cThe (possibly) great lunar lander race\u201d<\/a>, The Space Review, November 3, 2025), seems to shifted even more towards the Moon in recent weeks, culminating in a social media post by Musk February 8, just as the Super Bowl was about to kick off.\n<\/p>\n \n\u201cFor those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years,\u201d he wrote<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n \nNeedless to say, most were unaware of that shift in focus. For most of SpaceX\u2019s nearly quarter-century history, the company, and Musk, were deeply associated with a human presence on Mars, not the Moon. That was the subject of numerous presentations by Musk over the years, which have described making humanity \u201cmultiplanetary\u201d by establishing human settlements, even large cities, on Mars in the next few decades.\n<\/p>\n \nThat included, as an example, a talk he gave at Starbase in May around the time of a Starship test flight. \u201cProgress is measured by the timeline to establishing a self-sustaining civilization on Mars,\u201d he said then (see \u201cStarship setbacks and strategies\u201d<\/a>, The Space Review, June 9, 2025).\n<\/p>\n \u201cAlong the way we can do cool things, like have a Moon base, like Moonbase Alpha,\u201d Musk said last May.<\/p>\n \nHe used that talk to outline plans for sending Starships to Mars, starting as soon as the next launch opportunity in 2026. That plan called for sending 500 landers to Mars in 2033, each capable of carrying 300 tons of payload. The goals for that launch campaign included establishing global mobility and communications at Mars as well as resource extraction and \u201cincrease independence from Earth.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \nMusk made only a passing reference to the Moon in that talk. \u201cAlong the way we can do cool things, like have a Moon base, like Moonbase Alpha,\u201d he said, referencing the classic sci-fi TV series \u201cSpace: 1999\u201d. (\u201cMoonbase Alpha\u201d was also the name of a video game released in 2010<\/a> developed in cooperation with NASA, in which the player is an astronaut at a lunar base in the then-distant future of 2025.)\n<\/p>\n \n\u201cWe should have a Moonbase Alpha. The next step after the Apollo program would be to have a base on the Moon,\u201d Musk said. That base, he suggested, would be a \u201cgigantic science station.\u201d But after that brief digression, Musk returned to talking about sending humans to Mars, the main thrust of the talk.\n<\/p>\n \nMusk has talked about establishing a lunar base off and on in the past, even using the same name for it. For example, at one conference in July 2017 he expressed his support for a lunar base. \u201cIf you want to get the public really fired up, you\u2019ve got to have a base on the Moon,\u201d he said then.\n<\/p>\n \nA few months later, talking about what was then called BFR at the International Astronautical Congress in Adelaide, Australia, he mentioned the ability of that predecessor of Starship to support a lunar base, which he also called Moonbase Alpha. \u201cIt\u2019s 2017,\u201d he said in that speech. \u201cI mean, we should have a lunar base by now. What the hell\u2019s going on?\u201d\n<\/p>\n \nThese concepts, though, seemed like side quests: nice things to do but not on the critical path to making humanity multiplanetary. The company\u2019s interest in the Moon appeared largely limited to developing the HLS lander version of Starship, along the way gaining experience in technologies like in-space propellant transfer also needed for Mars.\n<\/p>\n \nSo what changed? Musk, in his Super Bowl Sunday announcement, suggested it was a matter of speed. \u201cIt is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time),\u201d he wrote. \u201cThis means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \nThat, however, has always been the case. In the past SpaceX was willing to overlook any advantages rapidly iterating at the Moon offered in favor of pressing ahead as fast as possible to Mars.\n<\/p>\n \nThe shift from Mars to the Moon comes as part of some of the biggest changes at SpaceX in years. In December, SpaceX executives said that the company was preparing to go public after years of claiming it would remain private: \u201cWe can\u2019t go public until we\u2019re flying regularly to Mars,\u201d SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said in 2018 (see \u201cSpaceX, orbital data centers, and the journey to Mars,\u201d<\/a> The Space Review, December 15, 2025).\n<\/p>\n \nWhile the company\u2019s CFO, Bret Johnsen, said that the proceeds for an IPO would allow SpaceX to \u201cbuild Moonbase Alpha and send uncrewed and crewed missions to Mars,\u201d the near-term factor in that decision was developing orbital data centers intended to serve what is, for now, an insatiable demand for computing power for AI applications.\n<\/p>\n \nTwo weeks ago, Musk took another step in that direction when he announced that SpaceX would acquire xAI, his AI and social media company. The goal, he said, was to create a vertically integrated company that could both deploy and use the orbital data centers he insists is the future of AI.\n<\/p>\n \n\u201cMy estimate is that within 2 to 3 years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space,\u201d he wrote in a memo announcing the deal<\/a> that was published on SpaceX\u2019s website. \u201cIn the long term, space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re going to make it real. We\u2019re actually going to have a mass driver on the Moon,\u201d he said. \u201cI really want to see the mass driver on the Moon that is shooting AI satellites into deep space.\u201d<\/p>\n \nJust a few days earlier, SpaceX filed an application with the FCC for an orbital data center constellation of up to one million satellites. The satellites would operate in both sun-synchronous and mid-inclination orbits between 500 and 2,000 kilometers. The spacecraft in sun-synchronous orbits would be oriented to be in near-constant sunlight, providing continuous services, while those in mid-inclination orbits would handle peaks in demand.\n<\/p>\n \nThe brief application had little in the way of technical details\u2014nothing about the size and power of the satellites or specific orbital planes\u2014but plenty of grandiose visions. \u201cLaunching a constellation of a million satellites that operate as orbital data centers is a first step toward becoming a Kardashev Type II civilization \u2014 one that can harness the sun\u2019s full power \u2014 while supporting AI-driven applications for billions of people today and ensuring humanity\u2019s multiplanetary future among the stars,\u201d the company stated.\n<\/p>\n \nMusk used some of the same language in the memo discussion the xAI acquisition. \u201cBy directly harnessing near-constant solar power with little operating or maintenance costs, these satellites will transform our ability to scale compute. It\u2019s always sunny in space!\u201d he wrote. \u201cLaunching a constellation of a million satellites that operate as orbital data centers is a first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization, one that can harness the Sun\u2019s full power, while supporting AI-driven applications for billions of people today and ensuring humanity\u2019s multi-planetary future.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \nMusk added that, eventually, the orbital data center satellites might be built and launched from the Moon, enabling terawatts of AI computing power. \u201cThanks to advancements like in-space propellant transfer, Starship will be capable of landing massive amounts of cargo on the Moon. Once there, it will be possible to establish a permanent presence for scientific and manufacturing pursuits,\u201d he wrote.\n<\/p>\n \n\u201cFactories on the Moon can take advantage of lunar resources to manufacture satellites and deploy them further into space. By using an electromagnetic mass driver and lunar manufacturing, it is possible to put 500 to 1000 TW\/year of AI satellites into deep space, meaningfully ascend the Kardashev scale and harness a non-trivial percentage of the Sun\u2019s power,\u201d he said. No one could accuse Musk of not thinking big.\n<\/p>\n \nLast week, xAI posted a video of a company all-hands meeting<\/a> hosted by Musk. Most of the 45-minute session involved updates from employees on various projects, but Musk closed the presentation with another vision of a lunar-enabled future for AI.\n<\/p>\n \n\u201cUltimately, you have to go out there and explore the universe to understand it, and that\u2019s the motivation behind the combination of SpaceX and xAI,\u201d he said. By launching spacecraft from Earth, he said the combined company could deploy 100 to 200 gigawatts of AI compute a year, with a path to one terawatt a year.\n<\/p>\n