{"id":296127,"date":"2026-02-17T19:38:13","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T19:38:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/296127\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T19:38:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T19:38:13","slug":"rbnz-on-hold-now-but-clients-brace-for-2026-ocr-hikes-westpac-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/296127\/","title":{"rendered":"RBNZ on hold now, but clients brace for 2026 OCR hikes \u2013 Westpac survey"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation expectations edge higher<\/p>\n<p>Underlying this shift is a clear lift in inflation expectations. Westpac reports that\u00a0\u201c83% of clients expect inflation will remain above 2% in two years\u2019 time, up from 76% at the time of our previous survey.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>More respondents now see inflation outcomes closer to 2.75%\u20133% in two years, consistent with the recent 3.1% annual CPI result and persistent core inflation pressures. Westpac points to a \u201crolling\u2011maul of price increases\u201d in non\u2011discretionary areas such as council rates, insurance, and utilities, with further large rises expected over the coming year.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/nz\/news\/general\/rising-inflation-expectations-turn-up-heat-on-kiwi-rates\/565260\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Separately, ASB and Westpac economists warn of an upward drift in New Zealand inflation expectations, edging further above the RBNZ\u2019s 2% midpoint despite contained headline forecasts.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>What matters most for RBNZ \u2013 and advisers\u2019 strategy<\/p>\n<p>When asked what could change RBNZ\u2019s plans, clients overwhelmingly nominated domestic growth and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/nz\/news\/general\/cautious-shift-emerging-in-nz-jobs-market\/565506\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">labour market conditions<\/a>\u00a0as the key swing factors, with non\u2011tradables inflation next for local respondents. Offshore clients also highlighted commodity prices and the exchange rate.<\/p>\n<p>For Kiwi mortgage advisers, the survey reinforces two themes: don\u2019t position clients for rapid OCR cuts, and be ready to explain why sticky inflation, a resilient labour market, and global central bank moves \u2013 particularly a more aggressive RBA \u2013 may keep New Zealand interest rates elevated through 2026, even if the RBNZ remains on hold in the near term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inflation expectations edge higher Underlying this shift is a clear lift in inflation expectations. Westpac reports that\u00a0\u201c83% of&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":296128,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46,44470,28880,9560],"class_list":{"0":"post-296127","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-il","11":"tag-israel","12":"tag-ocr","13":"tag-rbnz","14":"tag-westpac"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=296127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/296128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=296127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=296127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=296127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}