Experts are describing this week\u2019s price swing as a premium for increased uncertainty in the region. The exact level of risk, however, is unknown. As long as the tension remains, oil prices will likely fluctuate as traders assess the likelihood that oil supply could be impaired and determine how to calculate that into what they\u2019re willing to pay.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s a spectrum of things that can happen here,\u201d Skip York, a nonresident fellow at Rice University\u2019s Baker Institute for Public Policy, told SAN. \u201cWe just don\u2019t know the what or the when.\u201d<\/p>\n
Why do gasoline prices normally rise in the spring?\u00a0<\/p>\n
From the latter half of February to April and May, gasoline prices usually make a \u201cpretty noticeable\u201d rise of 25 to 65 cents per gallon, according to De Haan.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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About 20 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint bordering Iran.<\/p>\n
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A main driver of the increase is regular maintenance at U.S. refineries that process crude oil and turn it into gasoline. Refineries use the season to conduct standard repairs in preparation for summer\u2019s peak gasoline demand.<\/p>\n
\u201cGenerally, they have to shut down portions of their facilities,\u201d De Haan said, which temporarily constricts gasoline supply. At the same time, warmer weather and spring break travel increases demand. And on top of that, many refiners switch to a slightly more expensive blend of gasoline for the summer.\u00a0<\/p>\n
De Haan said Americans will be paying more at the pump over the next few months, but he expects the situation in Iran to contribute only a few cents to the total rise.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s a supply overhang right now,\u201d said Jim Krane, lead on energy and geopolitics in the Middle East at Rice University\u2019s Center for Energy Studies.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The global oil surplus<\/a> due to record production from the U.S. and increases from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries means the market is in a good position to absorb some disruption without sending prices skyrocketing.\u00a0<\/p>\n What could happen with the Strait of Hormuz?\u00a0<\/p>\n But there\u2019s one unknown that could shock global oil markets and prices at the pump: Will Iran attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz?\u00a0<\/p>\n Each day, about 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. That\u2019s close to 30% of all maritime oil supply, making the strait on Iran\u2019s southern coast a critical chokepoint in the global economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAny impingement on exports from the strait will almost immediately affect prices,\u201d Krane told SAN. And if the Iranian regime feels threatened<\/a>, Krane said it may attempt to close the strait in order to disrupt oil supplies as a \u201cstrategy for Iran to try and whip up global opposition to attacks on its territory.\u201d<\/p>\n Earlier this week as negotiations took place in Geneva, Iran temporarily closed part of the strait<\/a> to conduct military drills.\u00a0<\/p>\n \t\t\tStart your day with fact-based news.<\/p>\n