\u201cLet me be clear\u2014we are not claiming that solar flares generate tectonic stress,\u201d Ken Umeno<\/a>, the study\u2019s senior author and an applied mathematician at Kyoto University, told Gizmodo. \u201cOur argument is about timing, not energy. When a fault is already close to failure, even a small perturbation may shift when rupture occurs.\u201d<\/p>\n Earth\u2019s buzzy parts The study\u2019s model takes Earth\u2019s crust and the ionosphere\u2014a section of Earth\u2019s upper atmosphere filled with charged particles\u2014as a giant electric circuit. According to NOAA<\/a>, radio and satellite communication systems depend on this particular aspect of the ionosphere.<\/p>\n This also means that the ionosphere tends to be heavily influenced by solar phenomena, like solar flares and geomagnetic storms, which shift the atmospheric layer\u2019s electromagnetic profile.<\/p>\n Earth\u2019s crust, on the other hand, has its own share of heightened electromagnetic activity. After all, Earth\u2019s magnetic field itself is the product of shifting hot, molten iron and nickel in Earth\u2019s outer core. This constant motion of hot, blobby stuff underground gives Earth\u2019s crust a permanent magnetism, according to the U.S. Geological Survey<\/a>.<\/p>\n A cascade of electrons <\/p>\n In the paper, the researchers combine the electromagnetic properties of these two layers. Given the ionosphere\u2019s susceptibility to solar activity, powerful charged particles within a solar flare could force the electrons of the ionosphere to move downward.<\/p>\n The surge increases electron density at lower altitudes and disrupts the electrostatic balance in Earth\u2019s crust. Once the pressure builds to a certain level, it could generate enough force to shift a fault in the crust. Normally, Earth\u2019s crust wouldn\u2019t be too bothered by such disturbances, but things could be different for a \u201ccritically stressed fault,\u201d Umeno said.<\/p>\n The paper argues that this model is consistent with space weather patterns prior to the Noto Peninsula earthquakes<\/a> in Japan on January 1, 2024. Even for Japan, where earthquakes are common, these events were truly catastrophic, with at least 700 deaths and 204,903 damaged structures. Japan is among the most seismically active regions in the world, experiencing<\/a> around 1,500 quakes each year. A day earlier, the strongest solar flare on record for 2023<\/a> had struck Earth. Similarly, another earthquake in December 2025 followed an X-class flare, Umeno added.<\/p>\n Coincidence or pattern? <\/p>\n This isn\u2019t the first time that scientists have suggested this connection\u2014although the question is now more part of the U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s FAQ section<\/a> than it is of academic circles. Likewise, while the new paper offers a provocative mathematical analysis, other experts have some concerns about its validity.<\/p>\n![\"Nasa](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nasa-ionosphere-graphic-e1771615071628-336x221.jpg\")
An infographic pointing out the range of Earth\u2019s ionosphere. Credit: NASA\u2019s Goddard Space Flight Center\/Mary Pat Hrybyk-Keith <\/p>\n